WILL THAI POLLS EASE OR MAGNIFY CONFLICT?
Experts believe lack of a clear mandate from voters could complicate the current scenario.
Next Sunday will be a crucial day for Thailand, as voters cast their ballot to decide on the country's future. But what happens after the ballot boxes are closed remains uncertain. Will this election end a decade-long political conflict, or will it just create a new round of battles?
With voting just a week away, observers and political scientists believe that the most likely scenario after the poll is that General Prayut Chan-o-cha will return as prime minister, thanks mainly to support from Phalang Pracharat Party and its allies.
Based on this scenario, Uttama Savanayana's Phalang Pracharat along with its allies – Ruam Palang Prachachat Thai Party of Suthep Thaugsuban and the People Reform Party of Paiboon Nititawan, plus the 250 new senators – will most certainly vote for Prayut as prime minister. With the advantage accorded by the current charter – which allows the new Senate, handpicked by the National Council of Peace and Order, to vote for the next PM – it will not be difficult for Prayut to secure the post, said Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of political science at Ubon Ratchathani University.
But for him to sail through, his camp must secure at least 126 seats in addition to the 250 senators to win the required 376 votes, Stithorn Thananithichot, a political scientist from King Prajadhipok's Institute, said.
The academics all agree that Prayut and his allies can easily win backing from the three medium-sized parties, namely Bhumjaithai, Chartthaipattana and Chart Pattana, as well as the Democrat Party.
In this scenario, Stithorn estimates this camp will have obtained about 270 seats or more than half of the 500 seats in Parliament, which is enough to form a secure government. The number could vary, with 220 seats to Phalang Pracharat, its allies and the Democrats, plus 50 seats from the three medium parties. However, this scenario will only materialise if Phalang Pracharat wins more seats than the Democrats, or becomes the second largest party after Pheu Thai, Stithorn said.
The Democrats have in the past proved that they are willing to compromise with the military, so if the party were to be offered key ministerial posts now in exchange for backing Phalang Pracharat, why will they not do it? Titipol asked.
ODDS AGAINST PHEU THAIS
Will Pheu Thai be able form a government? Yes, say the observers, but they see this is as the least possible scenario. For this formula to materialise, the Thaksin Shinawatra-backed party and allies namely – Future Forward, Seri Ruam Thai, Puea Chat and Prachachart – must secure at least 250 seats, Stithorn said.
However, Pheu Thai and its allies can only be expected to garner 220 to 230 seats at most, or 120 or 160 directly from Pheu Thai and 60 to 70 from allies. This, according to Stithorn, will not be enough to form a government. However, all the academics agree that there is only a slim possibility of a government being jointly formed by Pheu Thai and the Democrats, as they will need at least 376 seats to fight against the 250 senators when it comes to voting for a PM. As they say, Thai politics is not one plus one equals two and anything unexpected can happen. There is also a clear possibility of a political deadlock if people do not accept the election results or if a new government cannot be formed.
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