Outbreak to last months at least: experts

The deadly new coronavirus that has broken out in China, 2019-nCoV, will afflict a minimum of tens of thousands of people and will last at least several months, researchers estimate based on the first available data.

“The best case scenario, you would have something... where we go through the spring into the summer, and then it dies down,” David Fisman, a professor at the University of Toronto who wrote an analysis of the virus for the International Society for Infectious Diseases, told AFP.

“It’s not something that’s going to end the next week or the next month,” said Alessandro Vespignani, a professor at Northeastern University. He is part of a group of researchers that manages an online dashboard about the outbreak.

In recent days, multiple experts have calculated an important parameter for any outbreak: the basic reproduction number, or “R0.” It represents the number of people contaminated by an infected person. Estimates range from 1.4 to 3.8, according to Fisman, figures that are considered moderate.

That is only an average: some patients may infect many people, while others infect only a few. “On its own, it isn’t a reason to panic,” said Maimuna Majumder, a researcher at Harvard University and at Boston Children’s Hospital.

She said the rate is 1.3 for seasonal flu (which has millions of cases per year) and between two and five for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which resulted in 8,000 cases and 774 deaths, the majority in mainland China and Hong Kong in 2002-2003. In comparison, the rate for measles ranges from 12 to 18.

Quarantines and isolation measures, systematic hand washing and masks could help drive down the average number of infected people. If the rate falls below one, the epidemic will die down.