NDA may win India upper house majority next year

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling alliance could achieve a crucial majority in the upper house of parliament next year if some small regional parties join the bloc that recently won a massive mandate in the lower house, according to a projection by an independent research firm.

Dominating both houses is essential to pass controversial legislation that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party has promised to its Hindu nationalist base, such as granting citizenship to non-Muslim immigrants from neighbouring Bangladesh and Pakistan.

The prediction by PRS Legislative Research, which tracks the functioning of India’s parliament, shows that the BJP alone could secure 83 seats in the upper house by next year - 10 more than it currently holds.

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could control 107 seats, seven more than its current tally and just 15 short of a majority in the 243-member chamber, PRS said.

Most members of the upper house are elected by lawmakers from state assemblies, while a dozen are nominated by the federal government. All of them enjoy a full-term lasting six years, with a third of the house retiring after every second year.

PRS’s projection shows that to get to the 122 seats needed for a majority, the NDA would need the support of regional parties from eastern and southern India. Some of the key parties have supported the NDA in the past.   

Modi and the BJP already have an iron grip over the lower house after they won a general election last month with a landslide mandate, improving on his massive win in 2014.

During his first term, though, the government’s legislative agenda was often thwarted by opposition parties who hold sway in the upper house, known as the Rajya Sabha.

A senior BJP leader, who declined to be named, told Reuters the party is looking to stitch up a two-thirds majority in both houses.

That would allow it to pass constitutional amendments such as ending the decades-old special rights for the people of Jammu and Kashmir, the country’s only Muslim-majority state, parts of which are also claimed by neighbouring Pakistan.