Turkey: Testing times for Erdogan

A protester waves a flag bearing a portrait of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of modern Turkey, during a demonstration in Ankara. Picture: AFP

Turkey's popular Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is suddenly faced with   political challenge. Since Erdogan's Islamic "Justice and Development Party" (Turkish acronym AKP) came to power in 2002, Turkey has seen steady economic growth and political stability. Under Erdogan, Turkey came to be respected as a strong secular nation and the powerful eastern bulwark of Nato alliance. Erdogan also clipped the wings of the powerful military generals who saw themselves as the guardian of the secular constitution and often staged coups, and strengthened Turkey's democratic credentials.
On 28 May several dozen environmentalists occupied Gezi Park in central Istanbul protesting against the government's decision to build a military barrack and a shopping mall on the park. The following day when the activists threw stones police retaliated with tear gas and water cannon to disperse the protestors. Soon the scenario snowballed and the activists were joined by professionals, trade union workers and sympathizers, and rioting broke out. The park and the adjoining Taksim Square turned into a battlefield. Anti-government protests also spread to other cities of Turkey. Two activists have died so far and several hundred injured on both sides.
What started as a demonstration to save a green park soon turned it into a political movement. Protestors took up other issues -- curb on alcohol sale and consumption; curb on abortion, ban on headscarf, war with Syria, authoritarianism of Erdogan, etc.
While the demonstrators chanted slogans for Erdogan's resignation, the defiant Prime Minister went on a tour of Morocco and Tunisia. He blamed the social media, marginal groups and the opposition Republican People's Party for the manifestation. He acknowledged that police had used "excessive force" but blamed "extremists" for the trouble.
Worried at the magnitude of the demonstrations Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc apologized for police excesses, promised to investigate the police actions and declared that no mall would be built on Gezi Park. Even President Abdullah Gul said that police should not have used excessive force to disperse the protesters. He urged the government to listen to the demands of the people.
Speaking in Tunis on 6 June Erdogan defended the Gezi Park plan saying that the project shall protect the rights of the majority and preserve the beauty of Istanbul. Clearly, Erdogan is in no mood to retreat.
The Turkish prime minister has unveiled a $400 billion public works program in preparation for the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Turkish Republic in 1923.  These grand projects will have a visible aesthetic effect on Istanbul. Istanbul is a leading contender for the 2020 Olympic Games.
At each of the three elections Erdogan has convincingly increased his share of vote. In the last election (2011) his AKP got 50 per cent vote which gave him 326 seats in the 550-seat Parliament. This overwhelming popular support has probably made him arrogant and intolerant. His support base is the rural religious conservative.
NATO allies were worried that Turkey, a frontline state of Syria, was facing popular unrest at a time when the Syrian civil war was getting worse. Turkey would be the launching pad for any Nato-led intervention. Washington has been urging Erdogan to resolve the problem quickly without using force. The other worry for the West -- if the situation degenerates further the army may be tempted to step in.
One wonders why these protests took such a violent turn. The answer probably lies in Turkey's history. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk established a strictly secular republic in 1923 after the demise of the Ottoman Empire. The divide between the urban secular – bureaucracy, military, businessmen, professionals – and the conservative rural mass has remained. But that divide did not create any schism or conflict as all are Sunni Muslims. Women in short skirts or in "hijab" can walk the streets boldly. Men sporting beard and cap sipping coffee will hardly take note of those drinking alcohol in the adjacent bar.  The state does not interfere with religion. It is 'laicism' in the truest form.
Distracters warn that the writing on the wall is loud and clear for Erdogan. People in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya have risen against autocrats and thrown them out. Syria is currently going through the throes of a civil war to oust President Bashar Al Assad. Fortunately Erdogan is a truly democratically elected leader.
Since AKP came to power secular forces began to suspect that Erdogan had a hidden Islamist agenda that can alter Turkey's secular identity. His statement that Turkey is a secular state and he is a Muslim prime minister – speaks his political mind. Gezi Park was an excuse to warn Erdogan not to meddle with Turkey's secular credentials.
Given the tensions in the region the current bout of unrest was unnecessary for Turkey.  It is a difficult testing time for Erdogan. He still remains a popular leader and is not under any threat of losing power. His support base is substantial. The opposition Republican Party is not in the reckoning of the people as an alternative.
The current unrest has brought to the fore the question of identity -- shall Turkey be known as a secular state or an Islamic Republic?  It will be a pity if Turkey's experiment with "Muslim Democracy" ends prematurely.

The write is a former Ambassador and Secretary.