The Flag of Rescue

The CEC has recommended a longer duration of army deployment during elections. Photo: Anurup Kanti Das

HM Ershad has once again proved that he is the most unpredictable person in Bangladesh politics. Last Tuesday, the former military dictator, a day after submitting nomination papers, announced that his party, Jatiya Party would not participate in the upcoming general election slated for January 5. In his defence, he has cited the absence of an environment conducive to holding a free and fair election. “All parties did not join the polls. So, I am not taking part in the election… I have kept my promise,” Ershad has said, sending a shocking message to the ruling Awami League. If the deposed dictator finally sticks to his announcement, it will upset the AL and will severely disturb the government's game plan for holding the polls.
His announcement however has sparked curiosity in people's mind. Still, many people think Ershad will take back his words, if he is offered something more by the AL. To be sure, we need to wait to see if his partymen who filed nomination papers withdraw or not. For this we have to wait until December 13, the last date for withdrawal of candidacies. So, by next week, it will be clearer whether an election will be held on January 5 or any other situation will prevail at that time. A high profile UN envoy will also be in Dhaka the next week to broker talks between the rival camps to resolve the political crisis. Whatever happens, will the AL be a looser at the end?
A one-sided election without the participation of the BNP-led opposition alliance is now almost certain after the expiry of the submission of nomination papers last Monday. Only 15 out of 41 registered political parties including Awami League and some components of AL-led ruling alliance and most unpredictable deposed military dictator Ershad-led Jatiya Party (JP) joined the election process. Jatiya Party a few days ago quit the AL-led grand alliance to contest the election independently as the BNP-led opposition alliance is set to boycott the polls. It however still remains a major partner of the election time government-led by Sheikh Hasina. The participation of only 15 parties has made it sure that the government efforts to make the election a participatory have fallen flat. If the JP as per Ershad's announcement finally quits the polls and comes out of the election time cabinet, Hasina will find it very difficult to implement her government's strategy to hold a one-sided election. But she will be left with no alternative but to go ahead with her plan until she faces a strong wall.
The expiry of the time for submission of nomination papers means the door for BNP-led opposition alliance to contest the election has closed shut. However, Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Rakibuddin Ahmad has promised to reschedule the poll fixture if the opposition alliance agrees to join the election. But this is almost impossible now, as there is no prospect of an effective dialogue between the AL and the BNP to break the political deadlock. The AL will in no way pay heed to the BNP's main demand which is the resignation of Sheikh Hasina from the election time government. Hasina herself wants to continue as the prime minister for the interests of her party and party leaders across the country. Many ruling party leaders fear that Hasina resignation to allow a non-partisan individual to assume the office will bring catastrophe for party leaders and supporters. The administration will not give any protection to them. The AL men may fall victim to the opposition's wrath. So, Hasina will stay as the prime minister come what may.
Whatever CEC Rakibuddin has said about rescheduling the polls fixture did not give any significant message. One thing has already been made clear--he now needs to go ahead with the schedule to hold a one-sided election. But it will not be smooth sailing. Security has already appeared to be a major concern. The coming days will be more volatile as the BNP-led opposition alliance will keep intensifying their street agitations to foil the election.
Given the situation, the CEC Rakibuddin at a meeting on the pre-election law and order situation on November 28 unveiled the EC's plan for army deployment for a period longer than the previous polls as he thinks that the ensuing general election poses more danger.
The Army was deployed for 12 days in the 2008 polls and 15 days in 2001. Both elections were held under non-partisan caretaker governments with the participation of all major political parties including the AL and BNP. "The scene is different this time around as a volatile situation has been prevailing in the political arena. So, army should be deployed well ahead of the polling day to maintain law and order," Rakibuddin told the meeting. In his view army should be deployed much earlier to instill confidence in voters. If the voters are panicked, they will not come to the polling centres.
So, one thing is certain that Army will be deployed along with other law enforcement agencies to maintain law and order though the government had earlier opted for not deploying the Army in election duties. Once deployed, what will the army do? More than six years ago, the then chief adviser Iajuddin Ahmed, who was also the President holding the defence portfolio, suddenly ordered army deployment on December 9, 2007 to maintain law and order. But finally, the army started to call the shots. The then regime had thought that the army would cooperate with them as the force had done in 1996 to hold a farcical election on February 15. But the Army did not cooperate with the then controversial caretaker government and the EC to hold a one-sided parliamentary election slated on January 22, 2007. The result was the declaration of State of Emergency that led the EC to cancel the January 22 polls. And at that time, army played the crucial role of enforcing the Emergency.
The Army, once deployed in election duties, will also play a crucial role which will determine the fate of the January 5 election.

The writer is Senior Reporter, The Daily Star.