Tempest on the Nile

In mid-July I wrote a column on the likely repercussions of the military coup that ousted Egypt's elected President Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government. Primarily, I raised questions about claims made by some analysts that the Brotherhood "Islamists" (the term is somewhat nebulous) are at the root of Egypt's "highly complex, multi-layered" political problem. Let me clarify at the outset that I do not support the Brotherhood. Neither do I condone the suppression of secular and liberal forces during its one year tenure. On the other hand, I also have reservations about the "undemocratic" removal of the Morsi government by a military junta. Unfortunately, my worst fears have come true -- the army cracked down on pro-Brotherhood protestors killing more than one thousand men and women. And the massacre and military detention of civilians continue under the pretext of "restoring democracy"!
While experts continue to weigh in on the Egyptian situation, I would like to examine the more generic issue of long-term consequences of military take-over from an elected government. I am fundamentally opposed to a forced removal of any people-elected government, even if it's a flawed one. Some may claim that dictatorships and military governments have a better economic and law and order record. It's true that in the short term, they may intimidate bureaucrats and the population into a superficial adherence to laws. However, they rarely leave a permanent stamp since fear cannot bring about long term change in a nation's behaviour and culture. As for economic gains, experience with army coup d'états in Latin America, Africa, Middle East and Asia shows that military juntas have retarded the prosperity of already impoverished nations by creating greater income disparities.
In addition, there is a serious global problem with nations ruled by dictators -- military or otherwise. In recent times these regimes have adapted and modernised their repressive methods and are undermining democracy in sophisticated ways through the media. They utilise the state-controlled propaganda machinery to belittle the core institutions of democracy and create ideological smokescreens. By using subtle techniques, dictators reconstruct history and undermine the achievements of the overthrown elected governments. In the process they inculcate hostile and negative attitudes toward democracy, especially among the younger generation. This may result in a serious new challenge since it discredits the rule of law, human rights and free expression. We see this happening in countries like China, Iran and Russia.
An endemic characteristic of dictatorships is that they rely on elite groups. These groups are allowed increased personal freedoms, including foreign travel, sweetheart business deals, and access to luxury consumer goods. The power and wealth concentrated in the hands of the elite are harnessed by dictators to perpetuate their rule. As a result economic and social inequities tend to become sharper and the middle and lower classes are disempowered.
There is hardly any doubt that representative governments are relatively more sensitive to public opinion. They are accountable to the citizens and can be voted out if they are no longer the popular choice. Most democratic nations go through a cyclic change of political parties that are voted in and out of power. In contrast authoritarian regimes continue to stay in power for decades (as we have seen in Chile, Pakistan and Egypt in the past) without having to answer for their actions. With time they become more oppressive, and, like the Syrian Assad regime, they may even wage war against their own citizens to curb dissent and protests.
It may be too early to pronounce a verdict on the Egyptian crisis. While the Morsi government must shoulder part of the blame for the current impasse, the brutal measures adopted by the army to clip the wings of the Muslim Brotherhood have compromised the chances of a peaceful democratic transition. All may not be lost yet. But Egypt's military leaders must step back and seek a pluralistic solution where all parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood and the secular liberals, are included in the process of reinstating and safeguarding democracy.
The Egyptians have struggled hard against an entrenched dictatorship -- and they deserve better than to see it being reinstated in another garb. We hope that the current crisis will serve as a transition to a democratic future which reflects the true will of the people of Egypt. But time is running out.

The writer is a renowned Rabindra Sangeet exponent and a former employee of the World Bank.  E-mail: [email protected]