Survey predicts grim picture for Congress ahead of 2014 polls

A sluggish economy and an untamable rise in prices can be sufficient reasons for public ire to turn against any incumbent Indian government. In the case of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), there are more reasons than just the economy and prices. One, of course, is its long tenure—it is only the third government since Independence to be in power for nine years running.
But, more important, it has been a tenure marked by a series of nation-rocking scams and corruption charges against its ministers and officials—phenomena that have been exacerbated by the ubiquitous reach of mainstream media as well as the explosive growth of social media, particularly in a nation where as much as 65 per cent of the population is under 35. Not surprisingly, the HT-GfK survey captures this strong anti-incumbency mood that is visible across India's regions, ages and economic categories.
However, the most remarkable finding of the survey is not that there is a nation-wide sentiment that is working against the Congress, but the fact that this is leading to a consolidation in favour of the BJP. This is the most worrisome signal for the Congress (and its allies) as it has always believed – or at least hoped - that the BJP, caught in its own internal mess, would not be able to mobilise anti-incumbency in its favour.
The findings of this survey sharply question that premise. Substantially more people believe the BJP would be more capable of handling the seven issues that emerged as the key concerns of the electorate, including price rise, corruption, job creation, and law and order. This offers the BJP the window to project itself as the national alternative to Congress.
How would this sentiment work on the ground if parliamentary elections were to be held today? In states and regions where the BJP is present, it will straightaway translate into votes. It would mean that the voters may distinguish between the state and national elections; for instance, the BJP may not do as badly in Karnataka in 2014 as it did in the recent assembly election.
All social forces against the BJP would gravitate towards the Congress in the event of Modi emerging as potential prime minister. In other words, the key factor that plays in BJP's favour will also have an opposite reaction. Moreover, if the simmering leadership war in the BJP goes out of hand, that also will affect the party's ascendance.