Polls, Padma, reality

Finance Minister AMA Muhith will cross the budget landmark he set four years ago, by doubling the outlay for the next fiscal year.
The 80-year-old politician carved out a milestone by rolling out Tk 113,819 crore for the FY 2009-10, the first budget of the incumbent government.
In tomorrow's budget rollout, which will probably be his last, Muhith will announce Tk 222,490 crore for fiscal 2013-14.
To many, this is not as big as it seems since the increase keeps with the trend of the previous years. The new budget will be 17.51 percent higher year-on-year.
In his first budget for Hasina administration, Muhith expanded the budget size by 20.9 percent in 2009 from the previous year.
The finance minister will present the budget targeting the voters for the upcoming parliamentary election, keeping it within the External Credit Facility programme of International Monetary Fund (IMF) and mobilising funds for stalled Padma bridge project.
A finance ministry official said the budget might offer some populist measures, as the election was due for the middle of the next FY.
The finance minister will describe the implementation status of the commitments made in the last four budgets in line with the election pledges. Likewise, he will also give explanation why he could not realise the rest of the pledges.
Muhith is also expected to give a detailed speech on the Padma bridge project, as the country's largest ever infrastructure project was a major promise in his party's election manifesto.
In the Annual Development Programme (ADP) of the next FY, the bridge will come out as a single largest project, as the finance minister plans to provide it with half the allocation going to the transport sector.
However, despite higher allocation, much uncertainty still looms whether the implementation of the Padma bridge project could be started in the remaining tenure of the current government.
Muhith and former Economic Relations Division secretary M Musharraf Hossain Bhuiyan, now the cabinet secretary, had mobilised external funds for the mega and complex project within the quickest possible time. But the project became uncertain due to high-profile corruption charge against the implementing ministry.
As part of various populist measures, the government might offer two special increments or a special benefit package for the 12 lakh government staff.
The finance minister has already said there would be no dearness allowance for civil servants although a pay commission would be announced.
The government may allocate Tk 2,400 crore to Tk 3,400 crore under its block allocation for paying the benefits to government employees and for the next parliamentary election.
Meanwhile, the moribund stockmarket may get an incentive package. For small savers, more benefit will be given for saving certificates. There may be various concessions in the tax proposals to increase stagnant investment and keep the price of essential commodities stable.
The government has already approved a new law on value added tax (VAT) to meet one of the conditions of the IMF. The law will come into full force from 2015, although some of its measures have already taken effect in the outgoing budget and will continue in the new budget.
The VAT law is expected to reduce exemptions and assess the tax based on actual transaction values instead of arbitrary approved values. This will increase the tax revenue despite expected tax concessions to implement the budget.
An ambitious revenue generation target is going to be set to keep the budget deficit within the programme prescribed by the IMF.
However, National Board of Revenue officials termed the revenue target unrealistic, saying that the target might have to be revised at the end of the fiscal year.
The budget will see the end of a bureaucrat-turned-politician's colourful political career, as Muhith has already said that he would not become the finance minister even if the present government retains office.
Besides the failure in the Padma bridge project, he will be leaving the government with another agony, as the country could not achieve 7 percent growth in gross domestic product, although it continuously grew at over 6 percent in the last four years, amid the global slowdown.