Malaysian election: Biggest test for the ruling party

Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razzak dissolved the parliament on April 3. Under Malaysian law the election must be held within 60 days of the dissolution of the parliament, and is scheduled for May 5.
Malaysia is a Muslim-majority nation and is home to more than 28 million people with various ethnic and religious backgrounds. More than 50% of the population is Malay. Chinese and Indians make up around 25% and 7%, respectively.
Malaysia's 13 million voters face a stark choice at the election between the ruling party that has brought decades of strong economic growth or a new era of sweeping change under Anwar's three-party alliance.
The ruling party, United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), controls 136 seats in the 222-seat Parliament An opinion survey conducted by the University of Malaya showed 42% of respondents supporting the UMNO, with 37% supporting the opposition and 21% undecided.
Speaking in a live television broadcast on April 3, Najib urged voters to stay the course. "Don't gamble on the future of your children and Malaysia; think and contemplate because your vote will determine not only the future of the country, but also of your grandchildren," he said.
Since taking office four years ago, Najib has undertaken through reforms aimed at outflanking Anwar's supporters and containing a growing clamour for greater accountability and more democracy.
Najib also has moved to sell off state assets, reducing the government's influence over the economy in a bid to spur growth. Last year's initial public offering of palm-oil plantation concern Felda Global Ventures raised more than $3 billion, while the broader economy expanded 5.6% in 2012
He slowly began dismantling an affirmative-action programme designed to help the majority ethnic-Malay Muslim population catch up with generally wealthier ethnic Chinese.  Razak is promising tax breaks, cheaper cars and higher cash payments to the poor to try to boost the ruling coalition's appeal.
But opposition members say they've heard it all before -- in fact, they claim they proposed nearly the same agenda in February. "It seems they (the ruling coalition) have taken several leaves off our book," said Dzulkefly Ahmad, a member of the opposition Pan Islamic Party.
The opposition, which portrays the ruling party as an authoritarian and corrupt force, promises reforms. Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim told reporters on April 3: "I believe Malaysians are prepared for change …, unlike some countries where it is done through popular uprising, in our case it will be translated through the ballot box."
It is reported Anwar has campaigned relentlessly, tapping into a desire for swifter reform among younger Malaysians by pledging more transparency, a tougher stance on corruption, and plans to eliminate the affirmative-action policies.
Observers say Anwar has worked to bridge divisions within the opposition, which includes the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party, his own People's Justice Party and the Democratic Action Party, which mostly appeals to ethnic Chinese voters, and to turn the loose alliance into an effective campaign machine.
A former student firebrand, Anwar rose through the ranks of United Malays National Organization, the main party in the ruling National Front in the 1980s, ultimately becoming deputy to former leader Mahathir Mohamad. They fell out over how to handle the economy during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and Anwar spent six years in jail on dubious charges.
Internet has emerged as another important forum for political debate in the country.
For a fifth of Malaysia's 13 million registered voters, the general election will be the first time for them to cast their votes. Students from the University of Malay are among the nearly three million first-time voters and will not waste their chance to participate in the upcoming election.
"I want change! I want a better future for me and my generation," says 20-year-old Halimah Salim. "You can't be creative if you are living in a silent era, with worries and anxieties about freedom of speech and expression."
Human rights activist, writer and film-maker Hishamuddin Rais reportedly said: "The opposition has a better chance this time. The coalition could win if the election is fair and free and there is no fraud."
22-year-old Mohamed Bukhairy, chairman of the federal student legislative body, is challenging Prime Minister Najib Razak for the premier's hometown parliamentary seat of Pekan. Observers say Najib's biggest challenge might be to keep the job of prime minister, even if the UMNO wins. He could face an internal challenge if he fails to improve on the government's current tally of 136 seats in the 222-seat Parliament.
The prime minister also faces a potential backlash among nationalist groups who fear he is giving up too many privileges accorded the ethnic-Malay majority, who have enjoyed easier access to everything from state universities to housing loans. Conservatives such as lawmaker Ibrahim Ali warn that Malaysia under Najib is turning into a country they don't recognise.
Ibrahim Ali, a lawmaker, has formed a powerful lobby group to protect Malay interests that counts Dr. Mahathir, who ruled Malaysia for 22 years before stepping down in 2003, among its supporters. "The prime minister has to be cautious," said Dr. Mahathir in an interview last year. "He cannot go full steam ahead because he may face unexpected repercussions."
Many government critics, however, say Najib hasn't done enough to meet Malaysians' rising expectations for change. The race is already shaping up to be the most important and closely fought contest since independence from Britain in 1957, and one that could radically alter the future of what is widely regarded as one of the world's most dynamic Muslim-majority nations.
"Every vote is going to count in this election, and it will be a close race," said Bridget Welsh, a professor at Singapore Management University and a longtime observer of Malaysian politics.

The writer is a former Bangladesh ambassador to the UN, Geneva.