Indo-Pak Relations on Fire Again

Back to square one again. There is 'thesis,' and there is 'anti-thesis'. But, unfortunately, there is no 'synthesis' in Indo-Pak relations which has recently nose-dive to the bursting point again. India and Pakistan are again at loggerheads. Sharpening their horns, and spitting fire and hatred against each other. The 'ice' that started melting, following the 'bus diplomacy', led by Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee last year and the consequent 'Lahore Declaration' seems to have been given a freezing burial on the snow-covered peaks of Kargil first by 'Kargil war' itself and then by the recent Indian plane hijack drama. The latter incident provided the leaders of both countries with new 'leverage' to squeeze each other, throwing at each other venomous accusations and counter-accusations, vilifications and counter-vilifications, which seem to be unending and unlimited. For these politicians, even the sky is not the limit, for inventing lethal weapons of war of words with each other.

Now comes the stormy news of a serious clash between the two armies in the Chamb sector on the line of control (LoC) dividing Kashmir between India and Pakistan. Each claims that they had inflicted casualties on the other, but each admitted that two of their soldiers had been killed. So the storm that was brewing has now begun to blow wild. Each country has now warned to teach a lesson to the other, as if none of them had learnt anything during the last five decades.

Earlier, India had accused Pakistan of masterminding the plane hijack and Pakistan had alleged that the whole drama was stage-managed by Indian Intelligence (RAW) to discredit the present military regime and win sympathies of America to accept their request to declare Pakistan a terrorist country.

Naturally those who wish to see peace and stability firmly established in South-East Asia region, have been worried to see the gradual deterioration of relations between the two newly-emerged nuclear powers of Asia. America had offered its mediation and cooperation to de-escalate the volatile situation. The world community also feels the same way because they all know that to sit on the mouth of a volcano and say everything is OK would ultimately be fatal for all. But to extinguish this fire, they will have to go deeper to find the root of the malady. It is time to recognise the ground reality and call a spade a spade in the interest of peace in the region.

Where Lies the Rut?

Undoubtedly, it can't be denied that the root cause of Indo-Pak troubles lies in Kashmir which is still on UN agenda crying for solution since the forties when Prime Minister Nehru took the issue to the UN for necessary action against Pak militias who were then litterally knocking on the doors of Srinagar. And the then Pak Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan had to withdraw them down the hills in what is thereafter known as Azad Kashmir (Pakistan control part of Kashmir), lled just as former PM Nawaz Sharif had to do in Kargil sector under US pressure. The UN Security Council then defined Kashmir as a disputed territory and proposed holding of a plebiscite under UN auspices, to obtain the opinion of the Kashmiri people. That historic resolution has never been implemented for some reason or other. But the fatal cancer has never ceased to spread. Meanwhile, India and Pakistan had fought three wars, specially two on Kashmir. Under new development, India gained an edge over Pakistan by striking a new deal, known as Simla Accord, which shows a new track to solve the issue through bilateralism, by-passing the UN resolution. And for obvious reasons, it was appreciated and supported by the world leaders as a novel way to bring peace in the much-tormented sub-continent. But ultimately, its bottom fell through with the passage of time without making any plausible headway. So the two countries are back again locking their horns. So long Pakistan was much weaker in all respects compared to a huge and resourceful country like India, but its tit-for-tat nuclear explosion has definitely brought the two at par, both psychologically and nuclear-wise. Hence this is the time for intervention by the United Nations, particularly, its most powerful member, the US, to put them on the right track. They shouldn't hesitate to take steps to cure the disease, instead of rubbing 'ointment' to suppress it.

Turn Down Heat

It is heartening to note in this context, the flurry of diplomatic activities both in Pakistan and India by members of the US Congress, both Democrats and Republicans, and cabinet secretaries and other high US officials. These activities seem to be giving out a very meaningful message to both the countries - 'turn down the heat'.

Of course, India's opposition to third party involvement to resolve the core issue of Kashmir will be there to thwart any move by any country or countries in this respect. But such a stance of India no longer holds good, since India has already broken to get third party involved in two recent events. First, when the Kargil war was at its peak, and tension between the two countries was running high, negotiations took place between Delhi and Washington before Clinton could 'bind' Nawaz Sharif to pull out the 'Pakistan-backed intruders' in Kashmir, that resulted in India's 'victory' and thereby boosted the morale of Vajpayee and BJP to fight the last general elections. Secondly, on India's appeal many countries were involved to bring to a peaceful end of the Indian plane hijack drama. So now India shouldn't feel shy to accept a third party involvement in the resolution of the Kashmir issue too.

Indo-USA Equation Brightening

Meanwhile, on the eve of President Clinton's visit to India (and he may drop Pakistan from his itinerary for the satisfaction of India), encouraging signals are coming out from Delhi. America seems to have already made substantial progress in establishing its equation, of course, economic, with India in recent times, particularly since the days of Kargil war when the US President performed miracle by forcing Pakistan to withdraw its militants from across the LoC. Perhaps as a good gesture in return, Indian government had already lifted trade restrictions that nearly for five decades blocked US products in key Indian markets, such as textiles, agriculture and consumer and manufactured goods. This is undoubtedly forging better ties between India and USA, opening not only the so far 'sealed' Indian markets to America, but also showing a great transition from the 'socialist economy' of Nehru-era to a new open market policy.

So America, rather Clinton (the credit goes to him, no doubt), has already made substantial inroads into the hearts of the Indian people. Perhaps it would make easier for President Clinton, as the leader of the only superpower in today's world, to persuade as a peace maker, the Indian leaders to follow a democratic approach for the solution of the much vexed Kashmir problem. It may be mentioned here that Pakistan's military ruler Gen Musharraf has also urged US and Clinton, to play 'a role' to promote peace in the region by addressing the core issue of Kashmir.

Time is short and the art is long. The situation in Kashmir is running too fast to get out of control, as the reports from both sides of the LoC indicate. The situation there is like a spewing gas field, waiting for a match stick. It would be too late for the world leaders to act if the 'match stick' makes a conflagration out of it. As a Pakistani daily said: "The shadows of war are lengthening in the wake of the latest violation of LoC...At this moment a catastrophic confrontation seems a real possibility." But India has already asked for a dialogue and advised Gen Musharraf to give up his 'language of threats'. But past experience shows that innumerable dialogues on Kashmir have been held between the two countries but they are still groping in darkness without reaching any solution. The problem stands where it stood, say, two or even five decades ago. They are just moving in a vicious circle, wasting time (or gaining time?) to prolong the hardship, miseries and sufferings of the Kashmiri people. (However, it might have helped some leaders of both countries to consolidate and build-up their leadership by playing to the home gallery!).

President Clinton: Role of Peace-maker

So it is time for President Clinton to act as a peace-maker as he has been doing in Ireland, Bosnia, Kosovo and specially in the Middle East where the arch rivals, Palestinians and Israel, and now Syria and Israelies, have been brought together. He has not only brought the horses to the pond, he has been successful to a great extent 'to make them drink' too. Let Clinton enter the volatile (or volcanic) scene in the South Asia to "turn down the heat" to establish lasting peace in the region, by curing the cancerous disease that is spreading in the body-politic of the subcontinent - the 50-year dispute over Kashmir. Let it be an epoch-making event in the new millennium, not only for Clinton as an American President, but for all peace loving people of the region.

The writer is a retired UN official.