"The infection surge in China is on expected lines. If you have a susceptible population that is not exposed to the virus, cases will rise. Nothing has changed for the rest of the world, including India."

— Dr Chandrakant Lahariya, an epidemiologist and health systems specialist.

India may see a surge in Covid-19 cases in January and the coming 40 days are going to be crucial, health ministry sources said yesterday citing the pattern of previous outbreaks.

"Previously, it has been noticed that a new wave of Covid-19 hits India around 30-35 days after it hits East Asia.... This has been a trend," a ministry official said.

He, however, said the severity of the infection this time is less and even if there is a wave, deaths and hospitalisation will be very low, they said.

The Indian government is likely to make it mandatory for passengers arriving from China and five other places to have negative RT-PCR reports from next week, the sources said.

Even if there is a wave this time around, deaths and hospitalisation will be very low, the Health Ministry sources said.

Amid a spike in Covid-19 cases in some countries, including China and South Korea, India has sounded an alert. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya have held meetings to assess the country's preparedness to deal with a fresh surge in cases.

The latest spike in cases is being driven by Omicron sub-variant BF.7. Health ministry sources said the transmissibility of this BF.7 subvariant is very high and an infected person can infect 16 more persons.

Beijing's sudden pivot away from containing Covid-19 has caused jitters around the world, with the United States saying it may restrict travel from China following its decision to end mandatory quarantine for overseas arrivals.

China late Monday scrapped quarantine for inbound travellers from January 8 onwards, dismantling the last remaining piece of its stringent zero-Covid policy and ending some of the world's harshest border restrictions. The move was greeted with jubilation by Chinese citizens, who rushed to book international flights, triggering a surge in ticket prices.