Not good enough

Six years ago, nearly every country in the world set targets for reducing their carbon emissions -- but the sum total of their pledges fell far short of what was needed to keep the planet from dangerously overheating. The 2015 Paris Agreement called for a cap of "well below" 2C. And following a landmark 2018 UN climate science report that warned of dire impacts even at 2C, Paris' aspirational 1.5C limit has become the de facto target. Most countries have done so since late 2020, but a new tally still puts the world on course toward "catastrophic" warming of 2.7C by 2100, according to the UN. Here is the round up national pledges:
 

China: In 2016, China -- responsible for more than a quarter of all carbon pollution -- promised to reduce the intensity of its emissions 65 percent by 2030. On Thursday, Beijing released its much anticipated NDC (nationally determined contributions) update, which refined its promises: peak emissions before 2030 and net-zero before 2060. But the country's new five-year plan does not spell out the steps to reaching this goal.

United States: The second-largest carbon emitter, the US was a driving force behind the Paris deal, with an initial commitment to cut emissions by 26 to 28 percent by 2025, compared with 2005 levels. The country's new NDC calls for lowering greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52 percent by 2030. This is compatible to a 2C world, but still falls well short of the effort needed to stay below 1.5C, according to Climate Action Tracker.

European Union: The EU committed in 2015 to reducing its CO2 emissions by at least 40 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Member states updated this goal in December, aiming to reduce emissions by "at least 55 percent" by the end of this decade -- a goal also in line with 2C of global warming. Britain, which has now left the EU, has a 2050 net-zero target built into law.

India: India is the world's third-largest polluter, but has a per-capita carbon footprint far lower than the world's other top emitters. Like China, the country has unveiled plans to reduce its carbon intensity -- by up to 35 percent this decade compared to 2005 levels. It has yet to submit a renewed NDC.

Russia:  Russia, which did not formally join the Paris deal until in 2019, submitted its first carbon-cutting plan in 2020. Using 1990 levels as a benchmark, Moscow said it plans to reduce CO2 emissions by 30 percent by 2030, a target deemed "critically insufficient" by Climate Action Tracker. Most recently, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would aim for carbon neutrality by 2060, but did not provide a roadmap for how the country would get there.

Japan:  Japan has submitted a more ambitious carbon cutting plan earlier this month which sets a goal of reducing emissions by 46 percent by 2030, compared to 2013 levels. PM Yoshihide Suga said the country would be carbon neutral by 2050.

Other major emitters: Among other big emitters, Brazil, Mexico, Australia, South Korea and Indonesia have all resubmitted NDCs that are no more ambitious -- and in the case of Mexico and Brazil even less ambitious -- than before, according to experts. Canada, South Africa and Argentina, by contrast, have all boosted their carbon-cutting commitments over the next five years. Last week, Saudi Arabia pledged to be "net zero", or carbon neutral, by 2060, but announced no plans to curtail oil and gas exports. G20 nations -- holding a summit in Rome this weekend -- represent more than 75 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Carbon neutrality:  More and more governments are committing to achieve net zero emissions by mid-century. So far, 49 countries accounting for 57 percent of global emissions -- including all EU member states, Britain and the United States -- have make formal or legal commitments, according to the UN Environment Programme. Any credible pathway toward global net-zero in 2050 will require slashing carbon emissions by 45 percent by 2030, according to the UN.