Annan hopeful of averting Iraq war

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said Tuesday he was optimistic about averting war with Iraq, if countries in the region could persuade Baghdad to disarm in line with Security Council demands.

"I am both optimistic and hopeful that if we handle the situation right and the pressure on the Iraqi leadership is maintained, and the inspectors continue their work aggressively, we may be able to disarm Iraq peacefully without going to war," he said.

Annan said the United Nations was "extremely worried about the humanitarian consequences" of military action.

"We have been doing some contingency planning, because obviously we don't want to be caught unprepared," he said. "We are worried; the consequences could be quite substantial and negative on the population and the refugees who may have to leave."

Annan said he had been in touch with "quite a lot of the leaders in the region" about the need for them "to convince President Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi leadership to disarm and to cooperate fully with the inspectors."

If Iraq disarmed and complied with the demands of the UN Security Council, the region may be spared another military confrontation, he said.

"I hope the Israeli leadership is listening and that countries in the region, including Turkey, are sending the same message to Iraq," Annan said. A spokesman later said Annan meant to refer to the Iraqi leadership but misspoke.

He said he had not been involved in any discussions or talks on the possibility of persuading Saddam to stand down and leave Iraq.

Asked whether he would approve of a military strike if Iraq defied the UN and refused to disarm, Annan replied: "I don't think we are there yet, so I don't want to talk about war, nor is the council talking about war."

He recalled that chief arms inspector Hans Blix and the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, were due to report to the council January 27 and would visit Baghdad before then.

"The council will make a determination whether Iraq has performed or not and whether there is a breach, Annan said.

He noted that when Blix and ElBaradei briefed the council last week, they said "there were major gaps" in Iraq's December 8 declaration to the council on its nuclear, biological and chemical weapons.

Blix and ElBaradei had "indicated that they would prefer Iraq to be proactive in its cooperation," and he expected them to press the Iraqis when they visited Baghdad Sunday and Monday, he said.

If they reported that Iraq had failed to cooperate with them - a possible trigger for military action - Annan said he expected the council to adopt a new resolution.

"This is a crucial and important issue," he said. "I think it is envisaged in Resolution 1441, that the council will meet a second time to take up the matter" if the inspectors report a lack of cooperation.

"We can have a second resolution - the council will take a decision on this very pressing matter," he added.

Resolution 1441, adopted unanimously November 8, threatened Iraq with "serious consequences" if it lied about its weapons of mass destruction and failed to cooperate with inspectors who began work three weeks later.

"We will have to assume that the members of the council acted in good faith, that the issue is disarmament and that they will do whatever it takes to disarm" Iraq, Annan said.

"If disarmament were to succeed and we were to agree that Iraq has been stripped of its weapons of mass destruction, that will be the end of the story.

"If, on the other hand, it were to come out that Iraq continues to defy and disarmament has not happened, then the council will have to face up to its responsibilities and take the necessary action."