Nepal at crossroads (conclusion)

Interestingly, the SPA and the Maoists signed the draft interim constitution on December 16, 2006. Though the interim legislature was supposed to adopt the document -- it could not do so yet. The draft constitution has 25 parts, 167 articles, and 3 annexes. The interim parliament was to be replaced by a constituent assembly (of 425 members for 2 years) through the elections of June 23 this year. But that date was postponed until November 22.
The salient provisions of the draft are: the king stripped of all powers that he exercised under the 1990 constitution; future of the monarchy to be decided by the constituent assembly; property of the king to be nationalised; king to have no control over the armed forces (he was so far the supreme commander); the king cannot dissolve the parliament; prime minister invested with all state powers; the council of ministers (headed by the PM) to appoint the army chief; abolish Raj Parishad (upper house of parliament); unicameral legislature of 330 members; national human rights commission to be established. The draft also states "sovereign rights and executive powers are vested in the people" -- a clear indication that Nepal was moving towards a republic, evidently no place for the monarchy.
On August 23, the government nationalised seven palaces, including the sprawling Nayanhitti Palace in Kathmandu, owned by the king. All the major parties including the Nepali Congress, which was soft on the monarchy, supported the move. On September 6, his name was removed from the Nepali coins and replaced with an image of Mount Everest.
The same day Crown Prince Paras suffered a massive heart attack. While the playboy prince lay unconscious in hospital the royalists called to save the monarchy by declaring "Hridayendra" -- the four-year old son of Paras as king. The government has also stopped paying the annual half-a-million dollar allowance to King Gyanendra. Clearly all the doors seem to be closing onto the king.
Ever since joining the government the Maoists have been looking for excuses to defer the elections. Prachanda has been threatening to quit the government and staging mass uprising in Kathmandu. The Maoists have realised that their "janajodha" has made them terribly unpopular with the people. Opinion polls conducted in Nepal recently suggest that the Maoists shall not get more than 10 per cent votes if elections are held. The Maoists know that -- hence the dithering.
Maoist despondency was complete when they stormed out of the government on September 18. The disagreement arose when Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala refused to accept two crucial Maoist demands -- immediately declare the kingdom as a republic, and hold the upcoming elections on the basis of proportional representation. The stalemate led to the postponement of the November 22 elections once again.
After quitting the cabinet, the Maoists demanded a special session of the interim parliament to decide on the new dates for elections. Analysts say that the Maoists, who propose to hold it in April 2008, are trying to buy time by creating all kinds of impediments to the elections. The Maoists have calculated that proportional representation will help save the party from defeat and ignominy. Even with 10-12 per cent vote it can have some seats in the constituent assembly. But under a simple majority system of counting they may not have any seat at all.
It is true that the Maoists are a credible political force pushing for a republic. But it would be absolutely wrong to conclude that the monarchy has lost all support. The silent majority is still with the king, in spite of the vastly unpopular Crown Prince Paras.
Though Koirala is under pressure he has so far stood firm on not agreeing to either of the Maoist demands. In early October, Indian Prime Minister's Special Envoy Shyam Saran (former Foreign Secretary) visited Kathmandu and conveyed that the republic must not be declared before the elections. India would like the constituent assembly to elect a president (thereby abolishing the monarchy). But Koirala is nervous that an announcement to elect a president may spur the army to take over.
India has all along opposed the fiercely nationalistic Nepalese monarchy. Though maintaining friendly relations with Delhi, the king has time and again embarrassed India with his attempts to be independent of Indian influence. The opportunity to oust the monarchy came when the homegrown Maoists launched the janajoodha in 1996. Many in Nepal firmly believe that the Maoist movement was actually abetted by India, and had it not been for India's clandestine support, the Maoists could never have become so strong.
Shyam Saran's visit and the continuing political deadlock strengthened the rumours that the army may stage a coup. The Nepali chief of army staff Gen. Rookmangud Katawal had to go public to quash the rumours and affirm that the army shall stand by the constitution.
Meanwhile the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, disappointed at the second postponement of elections, has urged all the parties to review the CPA and hold the elections as quickly as possible. He has also asked the Nepali government to enlarge the mandate of UNMIN (UN Mission in Nepal). Apart from helping the peace process -- verification of arms of the Maoists was a major responsibility of UNMIN. The mandate of UNMIN is scheduled to end on January 23, 2008.
The Maoists had no alternative but resurface from their hideouts to become a mainstream political outfit with the hope that they will dominate the political scene -- which they did. They were forced to accept constitutional process as a strategy to attain their "republic" -- a significant departure from their avowed goal of establishing a "secular communist state." Though Prachanda had mellowed down initially -- his optimism to win the constituent assembly elections seems to have withered because of his social anxiety. They have however, remained resolute in their determination to get rid of the monarchy.
It however, has to be acknowledged that the rise of the Maoists in Nepal had changed the political landscape of the Himalayan kingdom irreversibly. CPN (Maoist) is today a political force which is shaping the destiny of the Hindu kingdom. It will now be difficult for the Maoists to disappear into the mountains of Himalayas and take up arms once again.
The current political situation has pushed this poor Himalayan kingdom to a crossroads. There is no doubt that Nepal will have a full democratic form of government in the coming days -- hopefully free from corruption and Indian influence. The monarchy would possibly also survive if Delhi spares it -- with the king resigning to a ceremonial role, which his supporters shall happily accept. We must not forget that Nepal is a Hindu kingdom and that the king is revered by many as the living incarnation of the Hindu god, Vishnu.
Mahmood Hasan is a former Ambassador and Secretary. Today's piece concludes his three-part special on the crisis in Nepal.