Global emissions and warnings

The Climate Change Conference on 3-14 December, under the auspices of United Nations and hosted by the Government of Indonesia to be held in Bali, brings together representatives of over 180 countries as well as observers from intergovernmental and non-governmental organisations, and the media. Climate change has been in active news for quite some time now. The Arctic ice pack reached its lowest level since measurements have been taken. Glaciers are melting and the world's weather patterns are changing. Due to rise of sea level, many island and coastal countries have been under serious threat of extinction. The countries that contribute to the disastrous global warming affecting the entire humanity have taken notice of the warnings from the rising sea levels.
The disastrous global warming is the result of carbon dioxide emissions from power plants, cars, buildings, domestic firewood, methane, wastage of gas by drivers, contaminated surface layers of the world's oceans, among other sources. The Kyoto protocol is the closest the world has come to a global agreement to combat climate change and it is running out. Signed in 1997, it was designed to stabilise emissions of greenhouse gases that cause global warming. Ratified by 167 countries, it has been ignored by major polluters such as the US, India and China and expires in 2012.
Already the weather is becoming increasingly erratic, and more flux may be in store. The Arabian Sea has become warmer by 0.2 to 0.8 degrees Celsius over the last decade, leading to an 'increase in extreme weather events in our coastal areas', according to the meteorological department. The impact of climate change may be most telling on our water resources. The Himalayan glaciers that feed the Indus are melting at an alarming rate and may disappear altogether in 50 years. What we may see initially is a period of excess flooding, followed by a drying up of the waterways.
As of December 2006, a total of 169 countries and other governmental entities have ratified the Kyoto agreement (representing over 61.6% of emissions from Annex I countries).Notable exceptions include the United States and Australia. Other countries, like India and China, which have ratified the protocol, are not required to reduce carbon emissions under the present agreement. By most counts, the United States is the No. 1 emitter of greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide produced by coal-fired power plants and petroleum-fueled vehicles. But at least one study this year indicated that fast-developing China is now in the lead. Other participants are the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, India, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, Australia, Indonesia, South Africa, and Russia.
In 2002 about 40 percent of US carbon dioxide emissions stem from the burning of fossil fuels for the purpose of electricity generation. Coal accounts for 93 per cent of the emissions from the electric utility industry. Coal emits around 1.7 times as much carbon per unit of energy when burned as does natural gas and oil as much as 1.25 times. Natural gas gives off 50 percent of the carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, released by coal and 25 percent less carbon dioxide than oil, for the same amount of energy produced. About 20 percent of US carbon dioxide emissions come from the burning of gasoline in internal-combustion engines of cars and light trucks. The United States is the largest consumer of oil, using 20.4 million barrels per day. The UN's Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that aviation causes 3.5 per cent of global warming, and that the figure could rise to 15 per cent by 2050. Building structures account for about 12 percent of carbon dioxide emissions.
Sixteen countries that together represent 85 percent of the global economy and 80 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions are more or less responsible for rising temperature, according to the environment scientists. This includes the leading "Western" economies and large "developing" ones such as China, India and Brazil. Sadly, it does not include the countries that are most at risk from the impacts of climate change: places like Bangladesh and most African nations that do not have funds to build dykes and grow drought-resistant crops.
The Kyoto Protocol limits emissions to a percentage increase or decrease from their 1990 levels. Since 1990 the economies of most countries in the former Soviet Union have collapsed, as have their greenhouse gas emissions. Because of this, Russia should have no problem meeting its commitments under Kyoto, as its current emission levels are substantially below its limitations.
The United States, although a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol, has neither ratified nor withdrawn from the Protocol. The signature alone is symbolic, as the Kyoto Protocol is non-binding on the United States unless ratified. The Clean Air Act amendments of 1970 required 90 percent reduction of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emissions by 1975.
The Clean Air Act amendments of 1970 required 90 percent reductions of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emissions by 1975. Ambient air-quality goals have a similar history. In the case of global warming, the emptiness of political gestures is already on display. According to a recent report from the European Environmental Agency, the signatories to the Kyoto Protocol are already blowing past their commitments with wild abandon. The EU, under its current policies, is on track for a 7-percent shortfall in its emission targets by 2010; France is set to have a 9-percent shortfall; in Belgium the shortfall will be 14 percent; and in Denmark it will pass 36 percent.
While carbon dioxide is the principal greenhouse gas, methane is second most important, followed by Nitrous oxide (N2O). Deforestation is responsible for 25 percent of all carbon emissions entering the atmosphere. City gridlock (wastage of gas by drivers while just sitting in traffic) translates to carbon dioxide in cities. Carbon in atmosphere and ocean: The atmosphere contains about 750 billion tons of carbon, while 800 billion tons are dissolved in the surface layers of the world's oceans. About 50 billion tons of carbon is estimated to be held in a frozen state in the tundra, and now the tundra is beginning to become a source of carbon dioxide. Remaining scientific uncertainties include the amount of warming expected in the future, and how warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe. There is ongoing political and public debate worldwide regarding what, if any, action should be taken to reduce or reverse future warming or to adapt to its expected consequences.
The United States was, as of 2005, and still remains the largest single and silent emitter of carbon dioxide. China was projected to take over at the top of the table by late 2007, however one study now concludes this has already occurred. The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is an amendment to the international treaty on climate change, assigning mandatory emission limitations for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to the signatory nations. The objective of the protocol is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 1997 Kyoto deal requires 36 industrial nations including United States to reduce heat-trapping gases produced by power plants and other industrial, agricultural and transportation sources by an average 5 per cent below 1990 levels by 2012.
U.S. makes up a fourth of the world's total output but it is unwilling to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. Bush is now turning to China, India and the other big polluters to swap green technology and other voluntary ways of doing something about global warming. His administration also has set about creating a process for more such talks and a possible long-term global goal for reducing emissions, with each nation permitted to draw up its own strategies and plans. Representatives from among the gathering of 16 nations, along with the European Union and the United Nations, expressed skepticism that not much more than talking and political goals might be accomplished, but also optimism that at least the United States was willing to become part of such talks.
Scientists predict that global warming will take many of the present mega cities and part of the cities under the sea by 2100 that include New York, Los Angels, Shanghai, and cities in northern Europe. This will happen when half of the ice in Greenland and Antarctica will melt due to global warming. Most of the coastal countries will be under oceans. The temperature will increase from 1 to 7 degree centigrade. So, highest temperature will likely be nearly 50 degree centigrade during the summer. This is a serious threat which is much more serious than any other threats such as epidemic or terrorist threat. As nations, we need to prepare our own action plan and combined action plan in SAARC to reduce pollution as soon as possible. Individuals like you and me also should reduce pollution by saving energy in our everyday life.
The U.N.-brokered international treaty intended to cut greenhouse gas emissions is due to expire in 2012.. Critics have said they fear USA might undermine even the next round of negotiations in December in Bali, Indonesia. "I don't think that anyone believes that the next president -- whether Republican or Democrat -- will follow Bush's lead on climate," said Nicholas Eisenberger of Green Order, a New York consulting firm that advises companies on climate issues. "The question for President Bush is whether he has anything relevant left to say," Eisenberger said, "If he does not, the world will just move on without him."
Weak US Initiative
Earlier Bush rejected the 1997 Kyoto treaty, the debate within the United States has shifted toward growing concern about global warming. President George W. Bush, hosting major polluting nations 28/29 September, sought to convince skeptics that he wants to help shape the next global deal on climate change, despite his long history of shunning such efforts. Bush told a gathering of envoys from the 17 biggest emitters of greenhouse gases that he took global warming seriously and that the United States would do its part to combat it. The countries attending the Washington session together account for 80 percent of the global economy and 80 percent of global emissions. They include large European countries such as Britain and Germany as well as fast-growing developing countries like China, India and Brazil. His acknowledgment of a problem highlighted a shift from his previous questioning of the science linking human activity to rising temperatures. A European participant in the two-day climate session echoed that sentiment: "I know that with this administration we will not reach any results because the time is too short”.
The two-day gathering of the world's biggest polluting nations seemed to be aimed at undermining the UN's efforts to tackle global warming, say European sources. "The conference was called at very short notice," said one participant. "It's a cynical exercise in destabilizing the UN process”.
Bush's two-day conference on Sep 28-29 followed a U.N. meeting on 24 Sep. at which Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon tried to build support among 80 world leaders for reaching agreement at the planned December talks. Other participants at the State Department conference were from Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Australia and South Africa. The meeting on Sep. also drew about 70 demonstrators from Greenpeace and other environmental groups outside the State Department, where dozens were arrested for refusing to leave the premises after two hours of protest. The activists labeled the conference a fraud for not backing mandatory cuts in greenhouse gases.
Antipahy to action
Bush urged delegates to set a joint long-term goal for reducing the CO2 emissions that were causing the climate to heat up. "By setting this goal, we acknowledge there is a problem. And by setting this goal, we commit ourselves to doing something about it," Bush said. He told delegates his Washington forum would work within the framework of UN-led negotiations to craft a successor to Kyoto, due to begin in December in Bali, Indonesia. But he stressed that it was possible to cut emissions without harming economies. "We must do it in a way that does not undermine economic growth or prevent nations from delivering greater prosperity for their people," he said.
The plan by US President George W Bush for countries to set their own targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions has drawn considerable criticism. Some delegates at a meeting of the world's top 16 polluters saw Bush's comments as a US reluctance to commit to binding action on global warming. Officials at the Washington forum said legally-set international targets were the only way to tackle climate change. Bush stressed that combating climate change should not damage the economy. And he again hinted that the US would not commit itself to mandatory CO2 cuts. "Each nation must decide for itself the right mix of tools and technology to achieve results that are measurable and environmentally effective," Bush told delegates in Washington. But his comments did not go down well with a number of the ministers, diplomats and officials attending the US-sponsored forum on energy security and climate change.
South African Environment Minister Marthinus van Schalkwyk said in a statement: "What [the US] placed on the table at this meeting is a first step, but is simply not enough. We think that the US needs to go back to the drawing board."
Some observations
On his very first day in office, 20 January 2001, President Bush took up a defiantly ostrich-like stance on the issue of climate change. He ripped up dozens of environmental regulations including rules for less arsenic in drinking water, a ban on snowmobiles in national parks, controls for raw sewage overflow, energy-efficiency standards, and protections against commercial logging, mining, and drilling on national lands including the Arctic Circle.
The US refuses to admit that climate change is real and that humans are a factor. The U.S. is doing nothing to address climate change. The United States refuses to engage internationally. Bush still refuses to accept mandatory limits on carbon emissions or efforts to change America's reliance on fossil fuels. So begins a hand-sized handout, easy for reporters to pocket, issued at the State Department where President Bush was to cap two days of talks at a White House-sponsored climate change conference that is as much about salesmanship as it is about diplomacy.
The UN's own scientists are clear that Kyoto did not go nearly far enough and fraught negotiations on a new framework -- dubbed the "Son of Kyoto" have been under way for some time. It is now widely accepted that carbon trading will form the basis of any new agreement. A summit in Bali in December will search for a formula that satisfies developing countries demanding investment in return for abandoning the obvious, carbon intensive route to growing their economies, and rich industrial nations determined not to agree a deal that could damage their economies.
A letter to Bush from members of Congress, led by Massachusetts Democrat Ed Markey, who chairs the House of Representatives global warming committee, urged mandatory curbs on carbon dioxide emissions: "We need actual reductions in global warming pollution, not aspirational goals." "What would really galvanise the international efforts on climate would be a set of policies in the United States to put the United States on a fast track to building a low carbon economy," John Ashton, Britain's climate envoy, said in a telephone interview. "We now need to stop talking about talking and start deciding about doing."
The Washington talks are not formal climate negotiations, but rather an airing of views on greenhouse gases, energy security, technology development and commercialisation, financing -- and a daylong closed-door session on "process and principles for setting a long-term goal" to cut the human-caused emissions that spur climate change. Bush's proposal would come up with "aspirational goals" to limit emissions by the end of 2008, shortly before his administration leaves office. "U.S. leadership in the area of climate change is essential, not only because it is a big emitter of greenhouse gases, but because the U.S. is on the cutting edge of developing technological solutions and bringing them to the global market," said special U.N. climate envoys Gro Harlem Brundtland, Ricardo Lagos Escobar and Han Seung-soo at a Capitol Hill briefing.
Every government needs to include issues like environment pollution and global warming in the high school textbooks to make this generation aware about the upcoming natural threats. The Bali meeting in December is meant to begin figuring out a way to curb emissions after 2012, when the Kyoto Protocol expires. The Kyoto plan sets out mandatory targets for reducing greenhouse emissions, but the United States has rejected it as unfairly exempting fast-growing economies like China and India.
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he saw a "major political commitment" to seek a global solution to the problem at future U.N. discussions in December in Bali, Indonesia. USA, the largest polluter is not as keen as it should have been to initiate steps to contain the global warming from its own side, as it does with Russia and China and other nations on strategic issues. Obviously White House does not appreciate other nations dictating terms to the super power for cutting down emission. China already has got in place a series of anti-pollution steps including propaganda, while India cannot digest the fact it is also in global warming endeavours. But now almost a final warning has been alerted by the concerned specialist agencies about the impending disasters, if global warming is not brought down considerably as the top-most priority by all concerned countries.
Dr Abdul Ruff Colachal is a freelance writer stationed in Delhi.