Higher farm, industrial growth forecast for FY09

Around 0.2-0.4 percentage point agricultural and 0.5-1 percentage point industrial growths have been projected for this fiscal.
The forecast was made in a Bangladesh Bank's recent report sent to the parliamentary standing committee on finance ministry, showing a 6 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP).
However, the World Bank in its recent outlook forecast said Bangladesh's GDP growth would be 4.5 percent because of the global economic recession.
BB says the services sector growth might come down by 0.2 percentage point.
The farming sector will grow 3.8-4 percent in FY 2008-09, which was 3.6 per cent last fiscal year. In the industrial sector the growth would be 7.4-7.9 per cent against last fiscal's 6.9 percent.
In the services sector, a 6.5 growth is likely this time. Such a growth was 6.7 percent last fiscal.
MK Mujeri, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), said the information available till now suggests a higher farm and industrial output than the last year, as there has not been any major calamity this time.
Although the industrial sector felt the pinch of the global crisis a bit, the production also marked a rise, said Mujeri, also the former chief economist of the central bank.
He, however, foresees a lesser growth in the services sector, attributing it to the low pace in the ADP execution and telecommunication sector growth.
Rice contributes most to the farm output, according to agriculture ministry preliminary statistics.
Around 23.12 lakh tonnes of Aus rice has been estimated to be produced this fiscal, while aus production was 22.92 lakh tonnes last year.
Around 1.30 crore Aman output is likely this time against its last year yield of 1.10 crore tonnes.
Boro production has not yet been estimated, although the production target has been fixed at 1.80 crore tonnes by the agriculture ministry.
However, the officials concerned expect its output to go ahead of the target, as an additional 2 lakh hectares of land has been brought under boro plantation this year. The boro output was 1.86 crore tonnes last year.
Meanwhile, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics has shown a 8.9 percent rise in the production of medium and large industrial units during July-December period of the current fiscal, compared to the period a year ago.
The industrial production increased 6.8 percent last year.
Exports in the October-December period grew 18.16 per cent. In the last fiscal year it was 9.78 per cent.
A Bangladesh Bank high official expects a higher growth in exports this year, although the global financial firestorm has an impact on the growth.