Return of Benazir

It is not clear yet how far Benazir Bhutto's return to Pakistan would help President Musharraf to regain his credibility (that has been going down recently). His recent re-election to the presidency while still retaining the post of army chief, that is being contested in the Pakistani Supreme Court, would detract legitimacy regardless of the judgment because of his election by the present pro-Musharraf legislators whose term of office is going to end in the very near future and also his broken promise to quit his army post before seeking re-election.
But then, Benazir Bhutto's proposed alliance with the military is a recognition of the fact that ever since the birth of Pakistan, the army has effectively ruled the country and remains, in the words of analyst Daniel Markey: "Pakistan's strongest government institution and the only one that can possibly deal with immediate threats of violence and militancy … The real problem with pushing for a rapid democratic transition is that genuine civilian democracy in Pakistan is an unrealistic aspiration in the near term."
Markey's observation has been given a macabre touch of reality by the bomb attack on Ms. Bhutto's arrival motorcade in which more than one hundred and forty people were killed. Though Benazir herself escaped death the violent incident reflect the fact that violence remains an integral part of politics in Pakistan and that her popularity triggered the incident by those who feel her presence would marginalise their influence in Pakistani politics. Benazir herself in an interview with Wolf Blitzer of CNN only a few days back before her return to Pakistan spoke of threat against her life and of the distinct possibility of violence.
In order to understand the violent opposition to her return, one must recognise the existential gender inequality in Pakistani society that is basically patrimonial and patrilineal. Besides, two of the four provinces of Pakistan are ruled by Islamist governments who follow strict Islamic laws in regulating the day to day life of the people.
In a country where "honour" killings ( killing of women for allegedly bringing dishonour to the family) go unpunished and girls are married off at a very young age, the very idea of acceptance of a female prime minister in the country is very difficult to accept by many, despite the fact that Benazir Bhutto was twice elected to that position of power.
In Pakistani society, as in many underdeveloped societies in Asia and Africa, violence against women is pervasive and often practiced in the name of religion. In politics, though South Asia has had female prime ministers in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, acceptance of females in politics (as elsewhere) is not easy.
They are usually regarded as "property" of the male gender in the sense that the father rules her destiny before marriage, husband after marriage, and her own children in her old age. That the situation is changing for the better is not debatable. But these societies have miles to go to ensure gender equality and to bring about general awareness about violence against women.
It may be fallacious to conclude that the violence triggered by Benazir's return was only because she is a woman. Similar terrorism could have greeted Nawaz Sharif were he allowed to enter the country. But the recent events show the emergence of an ideological divide in Pakistani politics.
The close coordination between the fundamentalists and the military that has been the hallmark of Pakistani politics since the days of Gen. Ziaul Huq in ruling the country may be experiencing underground fracture. It is possible that the fundamentalists through violence are trying to impress upon the military that they should not be regarded as easily expendable.
Frankly, barring few exception (e.g. India) one could argue that in countries like Pakistan where illiteracy is the norm and banned sectarian and jihadi groups supported by a network of mosques and madrasas operate openly (primarily due to the military government's dependence on the Islamist political parties combine with consequent increased influence of al-Qaeda followers) liberal democracy cannot be successfully practiced. It is not enough that contestation to fill political offices is ex-ante uncertain, post-facto irreversible, and that elections are repeatable.
For democracy to be successful, political equilibrium must exist in the society, and "social coordination" in the form of freedom of speech and assembly is guaranteed so that aspirants for political power are able to get to the electorate with their vision and the electorate have a choice to make.
If one were to accept pre-eminent South Asian analyst Stephen Cohen's assertion that Pakistan is being ruled by a "moderate oligarchy" defined as "an informal political system that (ties) together the senior ranks of the military, the civil service, key members of the judiciary, and other elites" with an inerrant belief that India must be countered at every turn, that nuclear weapons have endowed Pakistan with security and prestige, and that the fight for Kashmir can only end with its becoming a part of Pakistan, then politics in Pakistan takes a shape different from other countries.
In this case, Francis Fukuyama's prescription that democracy needs a certain level of economic development for the stake-holders to oppose any interruption of democratic process, neighbourhood effect (i.e. flourishing democracy in neighbouring countries would inspire people to emulate them), culture for democracy (that sadly has been lacking in the case of Pakistan), and an inner craving for democracy would not apply in the case of Pakistan, regardless of the presence or absence of Benazir Bhutto.
Given the fate of enquiry commissions established by authorities in this part of the world, results of investigation into the carnage of Benazir Bhutto's motorcade would be suspect. Some analyst believe that a section of Pakistan army and its intelligence apparatus retain ties to militant groups including Taliban sympathisers that they had developed during Ziaul Huq's regime. These elements would have no favour with Musharraf-Bhutto entente and logically would like to disrupt such an alliance.
These are early days yet to make any credible analysis of Pakistani politics following Benazir Bhutto's return home. In an immediate reaction to the carnage, Benazir blamed supporters of the late Gen. Ziaul Huq as being behind the bomb blast. While not discounting the possibility of Islamic extremists being the likely perpetrators, Ms. Bhutto stressed that such groups were unable to operate without logistical support "from people in power."
One hopes that Ms. Bhutto's primary aim to bring back democracy in Pakistan in cooperation with the army, however imperfect it may be, would be able to help stabilise things -- and also not disrupt the US war on terror, in which Pakistan continues to play an important part.
Kazi Anwarul Masud is a former Secretary and Ambassador.