Is war between India and Pakistan inevitable?

TENSION is building up between India and Pakistan following the attacks in Mumbai, which, according to India, was instigated by a Pakistan based extremist group. Initially, India's Deputy Foreign Minister Anand Sharma reacted sharply: "We are a nation outraged right now. Our response will be very serious." It was followed by India's demand that Pakistan hand over 20 suspected terrorists who are involved with Lashkar-e-Taiba. This group was banned by Pervez Musharraf.
It is not understood how an armed terrorist group could enter Mumbai after crossing the sea without the knowledge of Indian naval units and the coast guard. According to the Nation newspaper of Pakistan, India has the largest navy in the region and the most modern ships. Not even a sparrow flying on the Karachi-Mumbai sea-lane is supposed to pass unchecked. On November 20, Indian intelligence agencies alerted the coast guards and naval headquarters of possible attacks, but the Mumbai police were not informed.
The Indian Express of December 26 reported about a meeting of bureaucrats asking Intelligence Bureau Director Halder why such information was not passed on to the Mumbai police. Halder bluntly replied that the police could do nothing on the high seas, clearly indicating that the navy and the coast guards had failed to deliver. Another surprising thing was that ten terrorists had seized Mumbai for three days and started firing from four places. How was that possible? How lax was security?
The same drama took place in the United States on September 11, 2001. American intelligence had been informed of the imminent attack by Al-Qaeda, but no appropriate action was initiated to prevent that. 160 Saudi nationals, many of them relatives of bin Laden, were allowed to fly out of the United States between September 16 and September 23, 2001 without being questioned.
There has been suspicion about the motive of the Indian government. Interpol secretary general Ronald Noble is reported to have told a news conference in Islamabad on December 21 that India had not authorised the sharing of any information with the global police agency about those suspected of involvement in the Mumbai attacks.
Meanwhile, Islamabad indicted that the name of only surviving gunman, Mohammad Ajmal Amir Khan, does not appear in Pakistan's national citizens database. Pakistan also refused to provide him any legal assistance. On the other hand, Pakistan shut down Lashkar-e-Taiba's charity organisation, Jamaat-ud Dawa, on the basis of UN resolutions and placed their leaders under house arrest and froze its assets.
Another ominous sign has been revealed by Gregory F. Fegel, a Russian columnist, in an article in Pravda. The writer is of the opinion that "now, after supporting Pakistan for decades, during which time the US not only ignored but also aided and abetted the Pakistan's state terrorism against India, the US is making a public show of turning against Pakistan. The US's recent sabre-rattling against Pakistan is not a result of the US government suddenly becoming wise to or fed up with Pakistan's terrorism. It is a part of the US' long range programme of divide and conquer against Pakistan and India. The US and Israel intend to encourage or provoke India into proxy war against Pakistan." This article was published on December 11.
Suspicion and mistrust between the two nuclear powers in South Asia have been prevalent since the two countries became independent from British India in 1947. Since then, these two neighbours have fought three wars. The current tense situation on their borders has led to serious concern among peace loving people. Both countries have initiated diplomacy to defuse the tense situation, but their armed forces have mobilised troops along the borders.
For the sake of peace in the South Asia region, Saarc and Asean countries must jointly make diplomatic move to defuse the tension and bring back normalcy. Neither the US nor Russia or China should be encouraged to engage in diplomacy because all of them might have different agendas.

Mohammad Amjad Hossain, a former Bangladesh diplomat, writes from Virginia.