Ebbing inflation marks year-end

Though the outgoing year started with high inflation, it has dropped significantly at the year-end but commodity prices, especially of food items including rice, are still much higher.
Meanwhile, GDP growth is feared to fall on the ongoing global economic recession. Such a rise in the gross domestic product has been continuing at a reasonable pace for the last several years, but it is likely to stagnate this year hampering poverty reduction and employment generation.
Economists say the incoming government would have to look into increasing both public and private investment. They also pleaded for raising production besides reducing its cost.
Inflation that has been on the rise since the four-party alliance regime, it went higher during the rule of the caretaker government. It crossed 11 per cent on point-to-point basis in 2008.
However, the latest report in November revealed that inflation came down to 6.12 per cent. Economists expect it to drop further in the coming days. But commodity prices still remain a concern.
Coarse rice is still selling at Tk 28 to 30 per kg, edible oil at Tk 115 to 120 per litre. The prices of other commodities are also high.
Multilateral donor agencies have already predicted that the GDP growth may come down from more than 6 per cent to 5.5 even 4.8, though the government claims it can be kept as high as 6 per cent.
The ADP (annual development programme) implementation in investment and employment generation is vital. The last fiscal year also witnessed a slow pace in such implementation. In the first five months of the current fiscal year only 18 per cent of the ADP has been implemented.
However, the country's export and remittance inflow is still healthy despite the financial meltdown worldwide. Exports grew 30.68 percent in the first four months of the current fiscal year. The remittance growth during the time was 33.56 per cent. However, the economists anticipate a negative impact on these sectors in case the global crisis lingers.
BIDS Research Director Zaid Bakht sees Bangladesh's economic situation 'a mixed one', as remittance is positive despite high inflation and low investment.
He suggested that the next government see that how the ADP implementation process could be accelerated, curbing corruption and wastage.