Change is in the air

TWO days in the far-flung village of Kazimohallah, in Shatkhira district does not make you a political pundit, but like a pundit, I am predicting what could be a landslide for the Awami League-led coalition in the 2008 election. A reversal in fortune for the "Moha Jote" compared to the 2001 election.
I am daring to make this prediction despite very little knowledge of Bangladeshi politics. For the past 18 years I have been out of the country; now a citizen of the land of Obama, but never out of touch with where I was born and raised.
So what did I see in Kazimohallah, in two days, that allows me to make this bold prediction without knowing about recent Bangladeshi politics? Sometimes ignorance is bliss. Being unencumbered by thousands of political commentaries regarding the 2008 election, it allows me to process information from the source, albeit a sliver of a source, and to draw conclusions from it.
I sensed a change in the air. Not the change that we saw in the land of Obama, but a change nonetheless. Shatkhira district in 2001 went for Jamaat as part of the BNP-led coalition -- winning four out of five seats. Like typical border towns, Shatkhira is a bastion for Jamaat as proven by their sweep in the 2001 election. But something seems different this time.
I was in Kazimohallah with my family visiting our ancestral lands and also letting my two daughters to get a feel of Bangladeshi village life. While in Kazimohallah, I did what you expect any curious person would do to get a sense of the 2008 election. I went from tea stall to tea stall, talking with whoever had the time to spare and engage in a conversation on this election, and there were many.
Kazimohallah is part of Shatkira-3 constituency that includes Ashashuni, Kaliganj, and Debhata. Of the four seats in Shatkhira district, this place is considered a safe haven for Jamaat. Jamaat candidate for this election, Moulana Reasat Ali, comfortably won in 2001 by a wide margin against Dr. Ruhul Haq, the candidate from Awami League representing the Moha Jote.
But the general sense that I was getting from the locale in Kazimohallh and also in Debhata was different. Dr. Ruhul Haq, who is again representing the Moha Jot from Awami League, seems to have penetrated the minds of the people of Debhata.
The union election offices were more vibrant, the processions seem to attract more people, and the overall buzz, in the remote village of Kazimohallah surrounding the Awami candidate was clearly a couple of notches above the Jamaat candidate. It wasn't just the buzz; time and time again I heard the story of: "We have seen what has happened since 2001 and we don't want to repeat it -- we want change."
If I had to put my finger on one issue that was giving quite a bit of tailwind to the Awami candidate, it is the recent price increase in basic necessities like rice, fuel, etc. The incumbent party, in this case Jamaat, seems to be bearing the brunt of this ill will from the locals.
Armed with intelligence for the tea stall "addas" I wanted to hear it from the horse's mouth and tried to schedule a meeting with Dr. Ruhul Haq, the Moha Jote candidate. Lo and behold, the night before we were supposed to leave Kazimohallah I got the opportunity to meet Dr. Haq at the Nolta hospital, which was built by him and serves as the hub for his campaign headquarters.
Armed with a camera and feeling like a reporter I went to Nolta hospital with some of my relatives and friends. What happened during this interview not only reinforced my belief that Awami League will give Jamaat a run for their money in this "safe" Jamaat seat, but also changed my perception of "typical Bangladeshi politicians."
First, Dr. Ruhul was punctual. He came to the hospital minutes after we arrived; greeted us and took us upstairs to the conference room. Second, within the first ten minutes of conversation it was clear the he was a physician first and a politician, a distant second. He was proud of Nolta hospital, proud of his association with his friend and colleague in Spokane, Washington who helped him create the prosthetics wing in Nolta.
A hospital like this could have made him a millionaire, many times over, in Dhaka, and maybe he is. But in Nolta, where the total cost of an appendix operation is 1,000 Taka and chickens are sometimes used as a proxy for 50 Taka as doctor's visit, you can't expect to make money.
Clearly he was not aspiring to be a politician. He was a physician who wanted to do something in the place where he grew up, established this first rate hospital in the 90s and was roped in by Sheikh Hasina to represent Awami League in the 2001 election. I am sure this story has been told many times over, but he came across as the real thing and somebody who wanted to do something for his area.
The gist of the conversation with Dr. Haq was no different than what I was hearing from the tea stalls. He is cautiously optimistic, he sees the change in the air, and he is pragmatic enough to acknowledge that people seem to remember the recent past more so than the distant past. Even though the past Moha Jote MPs were not necessarily any different than the Jamaat candidates who won in 2001 -- but voters seem to remember what the last MP had done for them than what his predecessor did.
If Dr. Haq wins, in what is considered a stronghold for Jamaat, it will not be a good omen for the Four-Party Alliance. While two days of tea stall discussions do not qualify for an educated political commentary, I do sense a change in the air that could lead to results diametrically opposite to what happened in 2001.
After all, Bangladeshis are known to "throw the bums out," and incumbents don't really enjoy the advantage like they do in US where more than ninety percent incumbents get elected. We'll see what happens -- and if my prediction is wrong I still can go back to my day job in US!

Dr. Arshad Mansur is the Vice President of EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) in USA and has been living there for the past 18 years.