Obama's perceived foreign policy

THERE are two main currents of diplomatic theory: the theory of the military and political caste and the other a more bourgeois conception. The former tends towards power-politics and is concerned with national prestige, status, precedence, and glamour. The latter tends towards profit-politics, and is mainly preoccupied with appeasement, conciliation, compromise and credit. These tendencies frequently overlap. It is the differences between these two tendencies that throw a clearer light on the development of diplomacy.
In US foreign policy, overlapping of the above two theories can be easily identified. When USSR attacked Afghanistan the US very strongly supported the followers of Osama-bin-Laden. The same Laden groups were considered top terrorists when they attacked Iraq and Afghanistan. The US supported General Noriega to enable him to control Panama Canal and make money from narcotic trade. Later on, the US captured Noriega.
The slogan in Obama's election campaign was "we need change." With the victory of Obama we are expecting a better world. Congratulating him, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahamadinejad said that Obama would be able to put the real interest of people as well as equity and justice ahead and above the insatiable demands of a selfish and unworthy minority. Obama said that he would respond appropriately to the letter.
Millions of homeless Palestinians have been suffering for over sixty years due to the Palestine conflict. These people hope to be benefited from Obama. With regard to Afghanistan and Iraq, it is expected that the president-elect will closely examine the recommendations of Centrecom Commander General David Petraeus.
Amidst so many congratulations, it is surprising that Obama was not congratulated by Russian President Dimitry Medvedev. Instead, the Russian president warned that Russia would deploy short-range missiles in its Baltic enclave of Kalingrad (bordering Poland). He further announced cancellation of plans to withdraw three intercontinental ballistic missile regiments from western Russia by 2010. In sounding the US a note of caution, he stated that the days of US supremacy after the disintegration of USSR were over. Some analysts consider the warning as reflection of Russia's current economic crisis (due to fall in price of crude oil from $147/barrel to around $55/barrel) and high rate of inflation (may reach 15% end next month).
President Bush is going to handover the office in about seventy days (20/01/09) with a number of serious problems to be faced both in the domestic and the international fronts. In the domestic front, the economy is sliding into a deep depression (loss of jobs may reach 1.44 million by end 2008, over 6 million Americans are unemployed and rate of unemployment may reach 6% by February 2009).
Barak Obama has already shown his capability. Though American national security and foreign policy goals are not determined by bipartisan political consideration, Obama has already announced formation of a national security team consisting of some prominent Republican members. Obama should focus on domestic economic issues more than issues of foreign policy. He must give close attention to issues like unemployment and curtailment of expenditure in Iraq and Afghanistan. Persuading Israel and the Middle- Eastern countries to develop better understanding is also needed.
Obama's first priority is to pull the US out from the current economic crisis. His foreign policy will, therefore, be formulated considering the interest of the domestic economy. However, it can be assumed from his speeches that issues relating to Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Syria and Pakistan will receive highest consideration in his foreign policy. At the initial stage of his regime not much change can be expected in the case of other countries, except Russia and China.
Obama appears to be concentrating on opening doors of opportunity for the young ones, restoring prosperity, and promoting the cause of peace. Whether the US will choose to tilt toward profit-politics diplomacy or continue to follow the policy of power-politics only time will tell.
A few words about the probable impact of his foreign policy need be mentioned. Obama has repeatedly stated that he would unilaterally cross the border into Pakistan to fight the terrorists. This is shocking and awe inspiring. Such move may tear up the very fabric of the sub-continent. Recent attacks well inside the Pakistan border, causing a good number of deaths and injuries, is a clear disrespect of national borders. Obama needs to look back to his own words that wars should be fought on reason and not on passion.
A.B.M.S. Zahur is a former joint secretary.