North Korea will not see a military takeover when its leader Kim Jong-Il dies and the power transfer will be peaceful, a top defector from the communist state was quoted as saying yesterday.
"Chances are low that the military will take over the reign of the country since Chairman Kim has thoroughly been managing the military," Hwang Jang-Yop told a South Korean lawmaker.
Speculation about the succession has become fevered since South Korean officials said last week that Kim underwent surgery for a stroke last month.
They said the 66-year-old is recovering well and still in charge of the hardline communist state. Other reports say he may be partially paralysed and that his long-term ability to run the country has been impaired.
Several experts believe a collective leadership dominated by the military will emerge if Kim dies suddenly.
But Hwang, 85, was quoted by legislator Kim Dong-Seong as saying that top military leaders have no cause to complain about their treatment under Kim and no reason to take power.
Hwang, former secretary of the ruling Workers' Party and an ex-tutor of Kim's, defected during a trip to Beijing in 1997. He remains under police guard at a secret address in South Korea.
Kim, who succeeded his father and North Korean founder Kim Il-Sung in 1994, has yet to designate a successor. Hwang said his first son Jong-Nam is the most likely heir.
"That's because the Chinese government has continuously managed Kim Jong-Nam (as an heir apparent) and he is supported by Chairman Kim's in-law Jang Song-Taek," the defector said.
Hwang predicted Kim Jong-Il's death will not trigger chaos or anarchy because his close aides are ready to rule.
He said Chinese troops would certainly intervene if anarchy did result but Beijing has no permanent designs on North Korean territory.
South Korea's unification ministry said the North is still allowing visits by South Korean aid groups despite the international uncertainty about Kim's health.
Delegates from 19 local aid groups are scheduled to visit this week.
Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-Nyoun told a briefing two more South Korean aid groups had applied to send teams of 111 and 170 people each to the North later this month and are awaiting Pyongyang's approval.