What people are saying

DESPITE repeated assurances from the CA, the army chief, and the CEC, people are becoming increasingly disillusioned about holding of the national election by December 2008. Speculation is rife is that the election may be deferred till March 2009. However, this writer still believes in the CA, army chief, and CEC.
Though the CTG is working hard to obtain full assurance from all parties for participation in the national election, the position of the divided BNP is not clear as yet. The party is more interested in the unconditional release of Khaleda and Tarique from detention, and is playing all its cards to achieve its objective.
Though the CA is striving hard to ensure participation of BNP in the election some advisers are of the opinion that even participation of the BNP's reformist group should be enough, as the people are interested in casting their votes in a peaceful atmosphere. As an experienced politician, Khaleda understands that unification of BNP will be time consuming, and that her own and her family's image has been tarnished to a large extent due to recent events. Thus, her party may not win a majority in the election.
It would, therefore, be advisable not to participate in the election, which will make the government weak. This will result in collapse of the government and there will be a new election soon after, in which the four party alliance may be able to win -- as it had done in 2001. This, however, is mere speculation.
It may so happen that both BNP and AL will participate in the election without their present chiefs. Such a gesture may be welcomed by the CTG because it will avoid many "ifs" and "buts."
Donor countries and agencies may have reached a conclusion (another speculation) that, for establishing democracy in Bangladesh AL was preferable as the country attained freedom under its leadership. On the other hand, BNP is a pro-fundamentalist political party and its partners do not seem to believe in the independence of Bangladesh. Moreover, under its regime the militants may regain their power and strength to cause great harm to the nascent democracy of Bangladesh. The police have reported that JMB and Huji are regrouping.
It is true that both the chiefs of AL and BNP have tremendous popularity. Without them, neither party may gain majority in the parliament, and, as such, there may be no other option than forming an alliance government led by AL. If Khaleda is not allowed to contest because of technical reasons she will not allow the new government to operate peacefully and smoothly. However, there would be enough time for new government for obtaining approval of decisions (including ordinances) of CTG in the parliament.
Though the CTG may have lost some of its popularity due its failure to control the price hike of some essential commodities, it has surely achieved much in other fields. In our import-based market economy it is extremely difficult to contain price hike of imported items like edible oil, food grain and some other consumer items. In addition, the recent unprecedented increase in the price of petroleum has put tremendous pressure on the economy.
It is unfortunate that BNP considers the CTG as its competitor. In fact, the CTG has, through its hard and sincere labour, put the derailed government on the track despite many obstacles. The CTG needs cooperation, not contest or competition.
Though democracy may not be as efficient as a non-accountable government, the people want democracy because it is accountable and ensures freedom of thinking and participation. This does not mean that we can afford to be insensitive about our choice of leadership. We cannot forget the horrible days prior to 1/11, when the 4-party alliance government was running like a dictatorial government where money and muscle were dominating people's lives.
The interim government is working to hold a free fair and credible election by the end of the year to establish true democracy. It is worried about the possibility of a return to the situation that existed before 1/11, and nullification of all its good deeds by the newly elected government because the major parties have not accepted the proposal for national charter, nor registered themselves or reformed their parties. However, speculation is that AL, BNP (reformists), JP (Ershad), and BDB will participate in the election.
There are some unconfirmed reports about the possibility of inclusion of representatives from various professions, and some advisers from the present CTG, in the new cabinet in addition to elected representatives. This newly elected government will be supported by the armed forces, as they have done to the CTG. The parliament will act like a constituent assembly and the constitution will be amended to remove inconsistencies. The new government will operate with a new outlook to maintain continuity of the activities of the CTG. However, all this is mere speculation at the present.

The writer is a former joint secretary.