Indo-Pakistan dialogue under stress?

Smiling Prime Ministers, Quarreling Governments.Photo: AFP

ON the ground, there is hardly any sign of success emanating from the Indo-Pakistan composite dialogue now underway. Yet, a desperate optimism sustained it, which survived the vicissitudes of time to reach up to its fifth round. However, at this stage, both India and Pakistan had to struggle to hide their exasperation with each other at the start of the latest round of talks between their foreign secretaries in New Delhi on July 21. Indeed, the talks got off to a rocky start.
In the restrained world of diplomacy, the events in Delhi amounted to a bucket of cold water poured over the process of rapprochement. Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon's blunt statement that Pakistan's alleged involvement in suicide bombing in Kabul has not only put the composite dialogue under stress but has also deepened tension between the two countries is a warning alarm for the fate of the dialogue. His Pakistani counterpart, Mr. Salman Bashir, reacted bitterly to it -- saying that, given Pakistan's enormous sacrifices in the war on terror, it couldn't be put on probation.
After the Delhi dialogue on peace and security, Jammu and Kashmir, and other confidence building measures (CBMs), Mr. Menon told reporters that the talks were taking place at a difficult time in India's relationship with Pakistan. In this context, he referred to recent alleged violations of ceasefire along the line of control, cross border terrorism, and alleged incitement of violence in Jammu and Kashmir. There have been public statements by some leaders in Pakistan, who are reverting to old polemics, he continued. He ominously mentioned that the developments might have culminated in the suicide bombing at the Indian embassy. He claimed that their investigation so far pointed towards a few elements in Pakistan being behind the blast.
Mr. Menon's comments left a bad taste for both sides, although Mr. Salman Bashir, in a separate news conference after the talk, tried to give a positive spin to his meeting with Menon, whom, he said, he regarded with considerable respect. To salvage the old frame of understating with regard to dialogue Mr. Salman shifted the blame to Kabul where, according to him, Pakistan's name was being besmirched "with unhelpful allegations."
According to Bashir, if Pakistan were to get involved in blame game it too had a litany of issues in Balochistan and FATA (Federally administrated tribal areas), where it could point the finger at India. But this was not what he had done during the talks. In spite of dampers in the Delhi talks, and the absence even of an official dinner included in its itinerary, Bashir put up a brave face in defending the positive spirit of the dialogue.
While the Indian accusations and rhetoric have grown sharper, no evidence has yet been forthcoming from the Indian or Afghan side to prove Pakistan's complicity in the deadly Kabul blast. So it is no surprise that Mr. Salman Bashir responded testily to a reporter's question about the bombing -- stating that they did not have to prove their credentials to anyone in the war against terrorism.
It is not, however, all bad news on the Indo-Pakistan-front, in spite of the rumour mills being in full production to the contrary. New CBMs and cross-Line of Control (LoC) movement of the people in Kashmir have been announced. Pakistan has permitted the expansion of trade with India -- something that was hitherto discouraged. The foreign ministers of the two countries are learnt to have met on the sidelines of the Saarc summit in Colombo.
Mr. Menon's accusation that Pakistan fomented violence recently against India in Kashmir and Afghanistan will certainly have vitiated the peace process. This will negatively affect the moves to settle political disputes since an over-wrought climate doesn't help any diplomatic effort or exercise. The flaring-up of tension on Pakistan's eastern border just as the pressure on the country's western border has increased is a worrying strategic development for a country facing multiple other domestic challenges. Pakistan cannot afford confrontation with its "old enemy" India as it tries to convince a sceptical public of the threat posed by the new enemy -- militancy.
This will play right into the hand of the hawks in the country's establishment who still view India as Pakistan's foremost enemy and are alarmed with growing Indian presence in Afghanistan, which has been traditionally considered Pakistan's political and military prerogative.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.