Saarc must act as one on climate change

Climate: Act before fertile land becomes waste land.

CLIMATE is not something that we can fix whenever we want, because most climate models predict gradual changes related to the steadily increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and carbon emissions. But ice and sediment core records reveal that, in the past, climate has changed abruptly -- possibly in as little as 10 to 20 years. Such rapid change in the future could make prevention and adaptation strategies difficult and expensive to implement.
We are altering the environment far faster than we can possibly predict the consequences. Comparable climate shifts have happened before, but over tens of centuries, not tens of years. Rapid change could accelerate the already high rate of species extinction as plants and animals fail to adapt quickly enough. For the first time in history, humans are affecting the ecological balance of not just a region but the entire world.
The alarmists in the global warming debate have had their say in every newspaper practically every day, and in countless news reports and documentary films. There is an increasing need for governments, organisations, businesses, and even individuals to understand and help tackle the issue, as climate change is one of the biggest challenges we are facing today.
In view of the growing demand to form a regional action plan for adaptation to climate change and mobilising funds for the purpose, environment ministers of South Asia are going to sit for the first-ever such meeting in Dhaka on July 3. Before that, an expert-level meeting is being held yesterday and today, which will make an in-depth assessment of the probable impact of climate change on the region and will suggest measures to tackle the situation through regional cooperation. A fund titled "Fund for Climate Change" has also been proposed to seek funds from donor agencies whose representatives have been invited to the meeting.
Climate change affects everyone, every day, everywhere. Hundreds of people were reported dead when a passenger ferry, having around 700 passengers and 121 crew members on board, capsized due to typhoon Frank (Fengshen) in the Philippines on June 22. Kansas, Indiana, and Iowa were heavily affected by floods on June 6-13. Rising flood waters swamped the central US river city, forcing residents to flee their homes and officials to abandon City Hall amid a wider crisis that left 20 dead. On November 15, 2007, the category 4 cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh uprooted more than 3,000 lives and unknown number of homes.
Humans are changing the Earth's climate so fast and devouring resources so voraciously that the survival of the world's ecosystems and of humanity itself is at stake. According to German scientists, the climate will be changing more quickly in this century than it ever has in the recent history of the Earth.
Besides various UN organisations, governments of different countries, non-government organisations, scientists, and individuals, many regional organisations throughout the world are now working together to cope with climate change as most of the times in any natural disaster, neighbouring countries in the region are usually affected.
2008 will be a decisive year in the battle against climate change. Hopefully, it will see us forge an international consensus so an agreement can be reached in Copenhagen in 2009, which will allow us to build on the Kyoto Protocol. One of the main themes of the 34th G8 summit, which is to take place in Tokyo on July 7-9, is environment and climate change.
The economic impact of climate change, rising food prices, and a broad range of other trade, growth, and development issues were discussed at this year's OECD Ministerial Council Meeting in Paris on June 4-5. World leaders will lay the groundwork for a global agreement through the 14th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Poland, on December 1-12.
After a two-day summit in Brussels on March 14, EU (European Union) leaders declared an ambitious plan to fight climate change and agreed to implement a 20% cut in greenhouse gases by 2020, compared with 1990 levels. The EU leaders also agreed to consider cutting value-added tax (VAT) on environmentally-friendly domestic products, which aims to increase the use of so-called green goods.
Nato Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer urged the 26 member nations to bear climate change in mind as one of the key elements, as it will lead to international tensions and conflicts over resources, water and farming lands, and will also increase migration.
According to the World Bank climate change expert Richard Damania, the poorest of the poor in South Asia are the most affected by climate change. The impact of higher temperatures, more extreme weather events such as floods, cyclone, severe drought, and sea level rise are already being felt in South Asia, and will continue to intensify. "We are going to see the wet parts of South Asia become wetter, causing flooding and affecting more people. We will also see the arid areas getting drier. This will hurt the poor the most," he said.
Bangladesh is set to disappear under the waves by the end of the century, says Nasa. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that Bangladesh was on course to lose 17% of its land and 30% of its food production by 2050. Bangladesh has already begun to feel the effects of climate change as flood periods have become longer and cyclones cause greater devastation. As sea-levels rise, the IPCC warned that 35 million refugees could flee Bangladesh's flooded delta by 2050.
The impact of climate change on India is likely to be worse. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, India's agriculture will suffer more than any other country's. Assuming a global temperature increase of 4.4°C over cultivated areas by 2080, India's agricultural output is projected to fall by 30-40%.
The 2004 tsunami was the deadliest in recorded history, killing over 280,000 people in towns and villages along the coasts of the Indian Ocean. Over 3 million survivors had their livelihoods destroyed. India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Somalia were affected. Over 40,000 died in Sri Lanka. Thousands were never found. Sri Lanka expects that over the next two decades the sea-level will rise by half a metre, with dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter, leading to floods in some areas and drought in others.
Maldives is a very low-lying island nation. During the past decade, the sea on average in the Maldives has risen by one millimetre every year. Since 80% of it is no more than 1m above sea level, within 100 years the Maldives could become uninhabitable.
For the first time, the government of Bangladesh allocated Tk 300 crore to create a special fund for enhancing public adaptability to face the challenges of climate change. India has adopted a vaunted policy, the National Action Plan on Climate Change and formed a powerful council of ministers, bureaucrats, scientists, and businessmen to co-operate on the issue.
Recently, the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources in Sri Lanka launched a Climate Change Secretariat and the Sri Lanka Carbon Fund. Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency is working to improve and protect the environment.
Saarc, too, is important, and could emerge as an effective force for addressing the issue of the impact of climate change on the region. But since its inception, Saarc has not been able to take up such critical issues. It has shown little concern for the regional political crisis that climate change threatens. This must change.
Ripan Kumar Biswas is a freelance writer based in New York.