Thailand teeters towards chaos

POLITICAL uncertainty continues to engulf Thailand, as the government faces an opposition censure motion in parliament and thousands of anti-government protestors vow to remain on the capital's streets until the government falls. There are also mounting fears of a new military coup amid the country's growing political and economic instability.
"The government is looking very shaky now, as it comes under attack from inside the parliament and from the protestors on the street," Professor Titinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, told The Daily Star.
But many ordinary people are getting sick of politics and want to see an end to the constant bickering between all the political players. "It's too early for parliament to judge this government, they should give them a chance to prove themselves," Rung, a twenty-year old single mother, told The Daily Star. "I voted for them, but I am not happy that they have allowed food prices to soar."
Opinion polls published earlier this week show that many people are tired of the political wrangling and want it to end.
Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej is now battling on two fronts -- the politicians in parliament are venting their feelings against the government's performance since it was elected in December last year, while a coalition of pro-democracy organisations, human rights groups and trade unions have taken to the streets to bring down the government, which they accuse of being a puppet administration of the former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra.
He was ousted from power by a military coup in September 2006, and subsequently banned from politics for at least five years by the country's constitutional court.
In parliament, the prime minister is being accused of trying to change the constitution, approved in a national referendum last August, in order to overturn a court ban on Thaksin and more than a hundred of his senior political allies and allow them to resume their political careers.
Other key accusations against the government include botching the economy and being hoodwinked by neighbouring Cambodia into giving up sovereignty over a Thai Buddhist temple situated in the border between the two countries.
On the first day of the debate, the opposition Democrat leader, Abhisit Vejjajiva, attacked the prime minister's style as disappointing and doing a disservice to the country. "He's unfit to head the government," he said. He also accused the government, and particularly the finance minister, of nepotism and a lack of transparency.
Tomorrow, parliament will vote on the opposition no-confidence motion, but no one expects the censure move to succeed. The government should win comfortably, as it has 316 seats in the 480-seat House of Representatives.
Although the prime minister's People Power Party is a coalition with five other smaller parties, some of which are mumbling about deserting the government, Samak is unlikely to lose his absolute majority just yet.
But other ambitious politicians, including a former prime minister, Banharn Silapa-archa, are jockeying behind the scenes to replace the prime minister, no matter what the outcome of the debate and vote. "It's a reflection of how murky Thai politics has become," said a senior western diplomat in Bangkok who did not want to be identified. "The lust for power and self-interest dominates; no one is neutral and no one can be trusted."
Within the governing party there are, reportedly, senior MPs close to Thaksin who are planning their campaigns to wrest power from the current incumbent. And Banharn, the leader of the second largest party in the coalition, the Chart Thai party, has made no secret of his wish to serve another term as prime minister -- and would seriously consider forming a government with the opposition Democrats, according to senior party officials.
"The PPP should accept its failure and agree to step back so that democracy can move on," said a Chart Thai spokesman, Sonthiya Sawasdee. What is needed is a neutral leader as interim prime minister, he added: and that is Banharn. "He has worked with the Democrats before, so he should be acceptable to the opposition," he said.
The no-confidence motion is likely to fuel dissension within the ranks of the government, and the crisis of confidence within the administration is likely to continue to grow.
Ministers are already confronting each other, trying to deflect blame for government policy failures onto their rivals. There has been an extremely unseemly conflict between the prime minister and the commerce minister, Mingkwan Saengsuwan over rice process and the management of government stocks.
"This government certainly does not inspire confidence," a long-time Thai resident and business analyst, Laurent Malespine told the Daily Star. "But it's the economy that matters," he said. What happens to the economy will determine what happens in the future.
Although the private sector is surviving and production growing -- albeit much less than it did under the previous Thaksin governments -- inflation is high. And this is severely affecting Bangkok's poor people and the country's poorest farmers in the north-east -- both traditional supporters of the former prime minister, Thaksin.
"There seems to be no discussion in formulating well-balanced economic policies," said Dr. Somchai Jitsuchon, the research director at one of Bangkok's most respected think-tanks, the Thailand Development Research Institute. As a result, inflation is likely to grow into double figures, fuelling increased protests.
In the meantime, the leaders of the street demonstration are determined that their protest should bring about an entirely new government, without connections to Thaksin. "Samak's resignation alone will not be enough to stop the protests," Suriyasai Katasila, a spokesman for the protestors' alliance, told the Daily Star.
The protestors have been in the streets outside parliament and government house for more than four weeks. Last Friday, more than three thousand protestors blockaded government buildings and forced the prime minister to work elsewhere. In an attempt to placate the demonstrators, Samak agreed to allow this week's debate and censure motion to go ahead.
"The People's Alliance for Democracy believes that the government's decision to allow a no-confidence motion in parliament is a political game to lessen tension," Suriyasai said. "But it won't work."
The alliance led mass demonstrations of tens of thousands of protestors in the months before the 2006 coup, demanding the then prime minister, Thaksin, step down for alleged corruption and abuse of power.
The same protestors now accuse Samak's government of interfering with corruption charges brought against Thaksin, and trying to change the constitution to allow Thaksin back into power.
Bangkok has been rife with rumours since the protests began that the country's powerful military would stage another coup. But the army chief, General Anupong Paojinda, has repeatedly denied it -- saying the political impasse had to be resolved by constitutional means. He also advised the prime minister against dissolving the House of Representatives as a means to end the turmoil on the streets of the capital.
But Thailand's political instability is set to stay for some time yet. "Prime Minister Samak's position is untenable now," said Professor Titinan. "It's only a matter of weeks before he has to go." At the very least, there will have to be a major cabinet reshuffle.
The smaller coalition partners have a disproportionate number of cabinet posts, and Samak is likely to redress this imbalance -- and bring more Thaksin loyalists into the government.
"He may even call a snap poll, even the army chief is opposed to it," Professor Titian said. But an election is the last thing that Thailand needs at this moment -- it would only increase political uncertainty and add significantly to Thailand's economic woes. But if the internal divisions and political instability persist, it may be the only option left.
A national coalition government, as some senior politicians have been advocating, is highly unlikely. "No one is in the mood to compromise," according to Professor Titinan.
For many of Thailand's poor, the answer is simple -- bring back Thaksin, even if it would certainly ignite mass demonstrations, especially in the capital Bangkok. "At least the economy boomed under him," said Surichai, one of thousands of Bangkok's taxi drivers who are Thaksin's staunchest supporters.

Larry Jagan is a former Current Affairs Editor, Asia, BBC World Service.