Challenges of climate change

RECENTLY, an advertisement showed how super-models are trying to promote an eco-friendly lifestyle through their outfits made with materials that are less polluting, less harmful to the environment and the earth, which, in other words, is called a green method of living.
Comparing black, a trendy colour for evening parties, with this green way of resource utilisation is not only interesting but also reflects the fact that global environmental issues -- climate change to be precise -- have caught the attention of everyone.

The problem
Climate change is one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats that the planet faces at the moment. Scientists say that the earth's average surface temperature has risen by 0.76° C since 1850 when reliable records began. Eleven of the 12 warmest years worldwide since 1850 occurred between 1995 and 2006.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that, without further action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the global average surface temperature is likely to rise by a further 1.8-4.0°C this century, and possibly by as much as 6.4°C.
There was a 70 percent increase in emissions of greenhouse gases between 1970 and 2004. In the energy supply sector, the increase was 145 percent. The increase from transport was 120 percent and from industry 65 percent.
There was a 40 percent increase from the reduced capacity of forests to "trap" carbon dioxide emissions, and as a result of changes in land use. Even in case of the most optimistic scenario, the temperature, since pre-industrial times, will increase by more than 2°C, the threshold beyond which the likelihood of long-term catastrophic changes is high.
The increase in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice in the Arctic and the Alps, rain and snowfall patterns, droughts and heat waves, and the intensity of tropical cyclones and rising global mean sea level are some of the evidences of climate change.

Why does it happen?
The atmosphere contains water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2) and other naturally occurring gases that let in sunlight but absorb the heat that is radiated back off the earth.
Called the "greenhouse effect," this keeps the earth's temperature at a level that supports life. Without it, the global average temperature would be too low to support life.
However, most of the warming that has occurred over the last 50 years or so is very likely to have been caused by human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and the destruction of forests to make farmland.
These activities are increasing the levels of CO2 and other heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, which is enhancing the natural greenhouse effect, making the earth warmer and changing the climate.
Other contributors to global warming are methane emitted by disposing of waste in landfill sites or the emissions caused by excessive fertiliser use, but fossil fuel use and deforestation are the main culprits. To bring climate change to a halt, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced significantly.
Implications for poor countries
The impact of climate change will be felt differently by different countries. While the Europeans think that their skiing holidays in the Alps may become a thing of the past, people from least developed countries have to think of their food and energy.
Bangladesh will be affected by inundation of land area, displacement of people and loss of gross domestic product due to sea level rise.
Hence, for poor countries climate change and poverty are two entwined challenges to be addressed simultaneously. The impact of climate change on agriculture and disease patterns will only worsen the poverty situation of poor countries.
That is how climate change also poses a significant threat to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of the United Nations, which sets environmental sustainability as one of the eight MDG goals.
Exploitation of natural resources has harmed those who depend on them for their livelihood. Hence, the onus of reducing carbon emission is on the developed countries.

Who should lead the way?
Leading industrialised countries and large developing countries such as China, India, Brazil and Indonesia are responsible for about 80 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions.
If global emissions are not stabilised, with industrialised countries cutting emissions, the impact of climate change cannot be avoided.
It has been estimated that if developed countries agree to cut their collective emissions by 30 percent by 2020, annual economic growth would be trimmed by less than 0.2 percent.
This is only a small sacrifice to avoid the potential long-term costs of climate change. The benefits of reduced air pollution, sustainable energy use, and innovation of green technologies would be enormous.
These benefits will outweigh the economic costs of emission reduction, as more efficient use of energy in everyday life can ensure a sustainable development. The intrinsic value of a green environment is also invaluable for the future generation.
Many European countries are going for innovation, whereby low or zero carbon energy technology will be devised in order to address climate change. A program like "Intelligent Energy -- Europe" (IEE) is an example. Other developed countries should also follow such initiatives.

Who should do what
Because of the disagreement in the past, countries are looking forward to an international agreement during the United Nation's Climate Convention meeting due in 2009. Such an agreement should include deep emission cuts by the developed countries, which must be by 25 percent to 40 percent by 2020 to avoid catastrophic climate change.
Tropical forests act as carbon sinks that absorb carbon dioxide. Hence, reversing of deforestation is essential for tackling climate change. Developed countries should also meet their aid commitments to achieve MDGs, and provide additional aid for adaptation measures for dealing with climate change and transfer existing and new adaptation technology.
Poor countries should ensure rights to land, forests, water, energy and livelihood for their poorest people, integrate climate change initiatives into national MDG-based plans, and prioritise renewable energy resources.
UK's Environmental Transformation Fund (ETF), the US's proposed Clean Technology Fund and Japan's Cool Earth 50 are a few initiatives for reducing carbon emission.
Recently, the World Bank proposed a $ 7-12 billion portfolio for three specific climate investment funds -- the Clean Technology Fund, the Forest Investment Fund and the Adaptation/Climate Resilience Pilot Fund -- along with a Strategic Climate Fund to deliver donor financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation projects.
Such initiatives should follow the existing multilateral commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which states that developed countries should provide new and additional financial resources to meet the agreed costs incurred by developing countries in meeting their climate change commitments.
Most importantly, in order to make such initiatives beneficial for developing and least developed countries, governments will have to ensure that the proposals for climate change financing are opened up to wider ownership and engagement from all stakeholders.

Dr. Fahmida Khatun is an Economist at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).