Crisis of options in Pakistan

Pakistan appears to be at the crossroads soon after celebrating the 60th birthday of its independence. Its President, General Pervez Musharraf finds himself sitting on a volcano that is being periodically shaken by convulsions. Right now he appears to be confronted by the gravest crisis of his eight-year rule and faces an ever-shrinking menu of options. He also has just a few days left to find a way out of his labyrinth before a constitutional crisis paralyses Pakistan.
There are many threats facing Musharraf and every day the list is getting longer. Right now, it includes an Al-Qaeda backed insurgency in Waziristan, pressure from US politicians, the Taliban, a suicide bombing campaign by Islamic fundamentalists, the impending return of two-exiled civilian opponents, a hostile Supreme Court (basking in the glory of true independence for the first time in many years) and his own re-election. The situation has deteriorated in recent weeks after the Supreme Court delivered its momentous verdict by voting to reinstate Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhury.
The General, long considered by the West as indispensable in the fight against terrorism, appears to have run himself into a political cul-de-sac. On paper, he continues to wield supreme power. However, in fact, he appears to be multiply circumscribed. He still relies on the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency, the senior generals within the Army and certain rightist Islamic parties that have flourished under the military dictatorship. They have helped him over the past few years in tackling the terrorist problem as well as in the governing of unruly North West Frontier Province and Baluchistan. Musharraf still considers himself essential to his country's stability and the West has fostered that belief till now. Unfortunately, today, some of his supporters appear to be melting away in the face of popular anger and frustration as embodied by demonstrations carried out by a newly courageous civil society.
The problem is that Presidential elections must be held between September 15 and October 15 this year. The Constitution forbids a General from holding political office while still serving and also for up two years after retirement. In December 2003 the General finessed matters by persuading a coalition of Islamic parties to back an amendment exempting him from the restriction, initially for one year. When the December 2004 deadline expired, the exemption was extended until the end of 2007 by a rubber stamp Parliament. Today it appears to be a different story. At that time the Supreme Court was relatively less independent in its outlook. This is not so now and we may easily have a situation where the Supreme Court could step in and disqualify him from contesting in the election on the ground of his continuing to be in uniform.
Time appears to be running out for President Musharraf. He is consequently, desperately trying to find an acceptable remedy. At one point he toyed with the idea of declaring emergency but was supposedly talked out of such a course of action by the US Secretary of State. His Allies have a resurgent Taliban in their hands in Afghanistan and the last thing they want is expansion of further instability in the bordering regions of Pakistan. Consequently, Washington, in the last two weeks, has tried its best in urging the isolated General to broaden the political base of his support. This has included efforts to form an alliance with Benazir Bhutto, former Prime Minister and leader of the Pakistan People's Party and to reduce his dependency on religious parties. Unfortunately for Musharraf, this has not worked.
This concept of cohabitation was shot down with the Supreme Court casting its own spanner within the political wheel by adjudicating that former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his brother (another influential member of the Pakistan Muslim League-N faction) were eligible to return to Pakistan 'unhindered' after spending seven years in exile. This abruptly changed Benazir Bhutto's willingness to consider entering into any power-sharing arrangement with the General.
The end result is that a crunch is emerging in the political calendar within Pakistan. If the General waits for a new -- and probably more hostile -- Parliament, his chances of re-election will, in all likelihood recede. To this has now been added the prospect of greater volatility through the return to Pakistan of his two arch civilian rivals. That, most certainly, will further change the dynamics of the dilemma.
Reports coming out of Pakistan clearly indicate that the old dogma of Pakistan's army, that the country fares better under its Generals than its politicians, is no longer true. However, it is also conversely correct that the re-emergence of Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Nawaz Sharif is not inspiring great enthusiasm among the regular power brokers in Pakistan. Many neutral Pakistani analysts, even today, remember both of them, for their corrupt and incompetent handling of governance during their two terms as Prime Minister.
Musharraf and his supporters within the Administration have already started to tackle the situation on a pre-emptive basis. Anticipating problems from the re-emergence of Nawaz Sharif, Musharraf, has stated that his government would refuse to abide by the Supreme Court's decision regarding the return of Nawaz Sharif. Another loyalist, Attorney General Malik Qayuum has also come out with a statement that the former Prime Minister is disqualified from participating in the next elections. He has pointed out that the sentence awarded to the former Premier was not pardoned but remitted by the President. According to him the stigma of conviction remains. He has also suggested that the fine and property confiscation included in the sentence would be applicable on the return of Nawaz Sharif.
Such a contention has however been disagreed to by Saeed uz Zaman, former Chief Justice of Pakistan who has sought the support of Article 45 of the Constitution. He has responded by saying that 'once pardoned after conviction, a sentence cannot be revived'. The question that will then emerge on Sharif's return will be whether the sentence was remitted or whether Sharif was pardoned. If required, in all possibility, a clarification will be sought from the newly empowered Supreme Court. The adjudication might then go against the interest of Musharraf.
The issue has gained particular momentum as jurists are of the general opinion that a person can only be disqualified from contesting the polls if he has got a conviction in a NAB case -- and Sharif has never -- convicted in any such matter.
The changing political scenario is obviously becoming a cause for concern for the United States. It knows that a fresh equation, with Nawaz Sharif playing a pivotal role in Pakistani domestic politics, might not entirely suit US interests in South Asia. It is also aware that a change in the political leadership in Islamabad might affect relations with New Delhi. These are imponderables the US Administration can do without over the next year that will see the US Republican Party fighting a grim battle for survival in Washington.
The inner coterie in Pakistan, beneficiaries of Musharraf's largesse, is reputedly still tinkering with the idea of imposing emergency. That would mean suspension of fundamental rights, placing restrictions on the Supreme Court and delaying elections.
I personally believe that undertaking such a path would be a mistake on the part of the Pakistani President. The United States and her allies, in the interest of regional and domestic stability, should instead persuade him to refrain from such a measure.
President Musharraf and his team have played an important role in the fight against terrorism and extremism. In his own way, he has helped to strengthen the Pakistan economy through economic liberalisation and consolidated moderation. He has also assisted in the empowerment of women, in the spread of primary education and family planning. These have contributed towards the reduction of poverty in Pakistan.
He should now, instead of waving a red flat at the Supreme Court, take off his uniform, hang it in the wardrobe and participate in the theatre of politics the regular way. His appointing a new Army Chief of staff would facilitate this. For far too long, the US and Britain have pandered to military rule in Pakistan and any further attempts to do so will only further antagonise the millions of liberal Pakistanis who are the future of that country.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador who can be reached at [email protected]