What is the real deal?
I recently read with much interest the news item entitled “Nuke deal at final stage†in The Daily Star. Having been associated with the nuclear power for the last fifty years and following the recent negotiations between Bangladesh and Russia on the Rooppur Nuclear Power Project (RNPP), I have written extensively on the subject raising several issues which need to be addressed in the interest of the public before we sign the final deal.
If implemented, the RNPP will be the single largest project in Bangladesh. It is, therefore, important that we proceed cautiously, prudently and professionally with this project.
I therefore feel that the following issues need to be clarified and discussed thoroughly:
Feasibility report
Bangladesh started negotiations with the Russians more than three years ago but the feasibility report of the project has not been completed as yet. The feasibility report deals with the technical and economic viability and also the safety and environmental aspects of a project.
How can a deal on a large project like the RNPP be in the final stage without a feasibility study and without knowing the final cost?
Project cost
The cost of a 1,000 MW nuclear power plant has been estimated at Tk.12,000-Tk.15,000 crore i.e. approximately US$ 1.5 billion to 1.85 billion which comes to US$1,500-1,850 per kW. It is not known who made this estimate.
Vietnam is negotiating with the Russians for two similar 1,000 MW reactors. They lined up a credit of US$ 9 billion for these reactors. This comes to US$ 4,500/kW.
Belarus and Turkey are also negotiating with Russia for two nuclear power plants at around US$4,000/ kW. There is, therefore, no reason to believe that a 1,000 MW nuclear reactor at Rooppur will cost less than US$ 4 billion i.e. Tk.32,000 crore.
Why are we then being told that the cost of a 1,000 MW reactor will range at Tk.12,000-15,000 crore?
Loan of US$ 500 million
It is reported that Russia will advance a loan of US$500 million for preparatory works like preparing a feasibility report, manpower training, plant design etc. A feasibility report should not cost more than US$10 million. A buyer of a nuclear reactor normally spends this money from its own resources.
Preliminary training of manpower can be done in Bangladesh using the facilities at the Atomic Energy Research Establishment (AERE) at Savar. The plant design and manpower training in Russia should be a part of the final contract for the construction of the plant which is yet to be signed.
There is no justification at all for taking a US$ 500 million (Tk.4,000 crore) loan at this stage when the feasibility report is yet to be ready -- the final cost of the plant is not known and the final contract for the project has not been signed.
Who will take responsibility for repaying the loan in the event the project is not implemented for some reason?
Russian operators for Rooppur
It is also reported that the Russians will operate the Rooppur Nuclear Plant for the first 10 years and then hand over the plant to the Bangladeshi operators. Is this a feasible proposition in the context of Bangladesh? What will happen to the plant if there is a civil disturbance at Rooppur during the first ten years and all the Russian operators leave the site en masse?
Who will look after the plant in their absence?
We have learnt from the Fukushima accident the dangers of a nuclear power plant even during a shut-down condition. It is thus imperative that we build our own manpower to operate our nuclear power plants.
In fact, we could have our manpower ready by now if we had taken proper steps to recruit and train manpower three years ago when we started the negotiations with the Russians.
Reactor safety
After the Fukushima nuclear accident, there have been some concerns about the safety of the Russian reactors being built in India (Daily Star, October 03, 2011). Are we aware of those safety issues and have they been resolved satisfactorily?
Project schedule
The preparation of the feasibility report, the submission of a project proposal by the Russians, the evaluation of the project proposal and final contract negotiations should normally take 30 months if we follow standard norms and procedures. So how are we close to a final deal now? I do not know who is fooling whom and for what reasons!
Reorganisation of bodies dealing with atomic energy
The Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC) is basically a research organisation. Its scientists are not trained to handle the construction and operation of a large nuclear power plant. They are unable to recruit experienced engineers because of opposition by its scientists to lateral entry at senior levels.
It is, therefore, necessary to establish a separate Nuclear Power Authority (NPA), like in India, and make it responsible for construction and operation of all nuclear power plants in Bangladesh.
This authority can recruit engineers who have experience in the construction and operation of large power plants and train them in nuclear engineering. Some of nuclear engineers of BAEC can also join the NPA. The Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission should be responsible for research and development on atomic energy only.
The Nuclear Energy Regulatory Bill was passed on May 31, 2012. The regulatory authority should be formed as early as possible. The regulatory body should be in full operation with necessary staff by the time the contract for the RNPP is signed.
The Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission, the Nuclear Regulatory Authority and the Nuclear Power Authority should be under a separate ministry of atomic energy headed by the prime minister.
One should be surprised to know that not a single Bangladeshi nuclear engineer worth the name was involved in any of the negotiations with the Russians during the last there years.
The current delegation to Moscow for financial negotiations consists of 15 members, most of whom have no part to play in the negotiations. I am afraid this is perhaps one of the ways how the US$500 million loan would be spent before signing the final deal!
Comments