New lion of Damascus: Fight or flee?

Photo: AFP

That was how American academic David Lesch portrayed Bashar-al-Assad in a biography. To the rest of the country, Bashar is better known as "Bessho," (baby Bashar). Despite having lost three of his closest confidantes in what was undoubtedly an audacious attack inside one of the most heavily guarded sites in Damascus, the national security headquarters, Bashar hangs on to power defying the world. Both the serving defence minister and deputy defence minister and a former defence minister were taken out by a suicide bomb. This coupled with a string of top military leaders totalling some 24 generals defecting in the last couple of weeks had both the opposition and foreign observers believing Bashar was done for. Unfortunately, things are seldom that simple in the Middle East. Bashar still has his younger brother Maher al-Assad, commander of the army's Fourth Division, who has driven rebel forces out of a Damascus district. As long as Maher commands, Bashar has hope.
The chain of events that has unfolded since the inception of the Syrian uprising means there is no turning back the clock. Yet Bashar hangs on defiantly, albeit with support from foreign friends who block the UN from endorsing a military intervention. What is ironic here is that Bashar was never destined to lead his people. His father Hafez Al-Assad had been grooming Bassel to take the reins of government, which was cut short in 1994 in a car accident outside Damascus. Bashar was recalled from London, given a crash course in military and political affairs, and the government machinery went into overdrive to revamp the image of the "new leader" in waiting. Known as a quiet introvert, Bashar inherited Bassel's inner circle and within two years a new Bashar had emerged, outwardly more confident with a better physique and carefully tailored voice to fit that image.
As Bashar took the reins of government in mid-2000, there was anticipation that he would break away from the repressiveness of Hafez's policies and usher in hope. Initial steps taken by the younger Assad pointed to a more optimistic future. A number of political prisoners were released from prison, discussion forums sprouted up in the capital city on the future direction of the country. There was genuine talk of reform as foreign advisors were sought to help revamp the administration and technocrats, for the first time, were brought in to tackle the bureaucracy.
Yet in less than two years, Bashar had retracted to his father's hard-line position in cracking down on a fledging democratic movement. The young president was unable to break free from the security apparatus built up over the decades by Hafez al-Assad, and the initial spark of hope ignited by his ascendance to power was shattered when the new regime chose to quash the rebellion of the tribes in Deraa in 2010. The revolt was not so much aimed at the regime, but at Rami Makhlouf, one of Assad's cousins who it is said controls nearly half the Syrian economy. Malkouf's legendary corruption is supplemented by a horde of aides close to the regime that have effectively divided the country into their personal fiefdoms. The other point of massive public discontent was with Maher commanding the elite Republican Guard and being head of the best Syrian unit, the 4th Division.
By turning back on genuine grievances of his people against an inept and corrupt system of governance that kept the vast majority of the people in abject poverty, Assad dashed hopes for a better future and the Syrian revolution was born. Today, Bashar finds himself on the back foot because of the murderous campaign against his people that has left nearly 20,000 dead and hundreds of thousands fleeing across the country's borders as refugees. With large swathes of the country beyond the regime's control, the question is what Assad will do now. Will he seek a safe exit? Or is it a fight to the death? Despite the critical blow of losing some of his closest aides in the suicide bomb, the regime shows no signs of relinquishing power.
According to the British Guardian newspaper of July 18, Bashar "telephoned the United Nations observer chief, General Robert Mood, and took a condolence call from Lebanese supporters at the discreetly guarded Malki residence he shares with his wife, Asma, and their children in the heart of the capital," basically debunking rumours that the president had fled the capital to organise a last stand in the coastal heartland of his Alawite sect. There is no denying that the Assad regime finds itself short of critical support with the demise of top military and security chiefs in the latest bomb attack. Also, after so much blood has been spilt, there are now very few countries that may offer the estranged leader a safe haven. Given realities on the ground, the last bastion of hope for Bashar may well rest with his hardliner brother Maher. Were Maher to fall, the strategic landscape could alter dramatically and the endgame drawn to a decisive close.

The writer is Assistant Editor, The Daily Star.