The road to Rashtrapati Bhavan

India's presidential elections often acquire a significance which well exceeds the function of that exalted but ceremonial office, which typically becomes all-important only with a hung Parliament.
The election of the first president, Rajendra Prasad, saw rivalry between Prime Minister Nehru and arch-conservative home minister Vallabhbhai Patel, who backed Prasad. Nehru's candidate was India's first Governor-General Rajaji (Chakravarthi Rajagopalachari), a well-regarded scholarly politician, who later formed the Right-wing Swatantra Party.
Nehru had an excellent rapport with Rajaji but was averse to Prasad because of his public display of religiosity and superstition. Prasad wanted to change the date of Republic Day to make it astrologically auspicious. He wanted to renovate the Somnath temple, and opposed Ambedkar's mildly progressive Hindu Code Bill.
Nehru pleaded, with great politeness, that Prasad withdraw from the contest. Prasad, equally politely, refused. Nehru lost. Ironically, Rajaji swore Prasad in!
The 1967 election was dramatic because Koka Subba Rao resigned as India's chief justice to become the opposition's candidate. A bench headed by him had just passed a judgment with major Constitutional implications. This was seen as motivated by political reasons.
The sensational 1969 presidential election transformed the Congress, indeed Indian politics itself. It became a contest between Indira Gandhi, then three years into the prime ministership, and conservative regional party bosses, including K. Kamaraj, S.K. Patil, Atulya Ghosh, and Neelam Sanjiva Reddy, called the Syndicate.
The Syndicate controlled the party, was allied with Big Business, and compelled Gandhi to induct her rival Morarji Desai as her deputy. The Syndicate wanted to strike against Indira, whom they dismissed as goongi gudiya (dumb doll). It forced the nomination of Sanjiva Reddy.
Meanwhile, vice president and trade unionist V.V. Giri decided to contest as an independent. Indira used this to take on the Syndicate. At astonishing speed, she sacked Desai and nationalised major banks and gave the Congress a Left-leaning identity.
Giri won and Indira established her political pre-eminence. Soon, she launched the famous "Garibi Hatao" slogan and won popular support with her Left-leaning policies, which eroded only with the Emergency in 1975.
Post-Emergency, the presidency acquired a partisan reputation, which stayed with A.P.J. Abdul Kalam's candidature in 2002, sponsored by the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance -- and opposed by the Left, although not the Congress.
The current election has witnessed intense politicking. Parties and alliances have been testing their respective strengths by proposing different candidates. Dr. Kalam's name cropped up again. And he ducked again -- disappointing the BJP and Ms. Mamata Banerjee.
The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) dithered until June 15, when it announced Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee's candidature. The regional parties, emboldened by their rising importance and election victories, asserted themselves.
Orissa's Biju Janata Dal and Tamil Nadu's AIADMK nominated former Lok Sabha Speaker P.A. Sangma. Even more bizarre was the list of three candidates, including Manmohan Singh, proposed by Mulayam Singh Yadav and Ms. Banerjee.
This galvanised the Congress. It pulled off a trump card. Mr. Mukherjee is backed by Mr. Yadav, although not yet by Ms. Banerjee. He's certain to win more than 60% of the votes.
BJP tried hard to build up the greatly shrunken NDA -- down from 24 parties to a mere seven -- by recruiting non-constituents into a joint front. But Mr. Mukherjee attracted support from the BJP's own allies, including the Janata Dal (United) and the Shiv Sena.
By backing Mr. Sangma, the BJP only further weakened the NDA and its own chances of becoming the UPA's prime challenger.
Mr. Sangma's self-projection as a tribal, a group which hasn't had an incumbent in Rashtrapati Bhavan, isn't going very far. A Christian from the Northeast, he's a very different tribal from the bulk of India's Adivasis in the Central and Eastern belt.
Political logic is compelling Mr. Sangma to rationalise the killings of Christians by Hindutva activists in Orissa. He has antagonised his own Nationalist Congress Party.
The AIADMK and BJD -- which recently quit the NDA -- remain in the pro-Sangma camp. But that's unlikely to ensure their return to the NDA.
JD(U) leader and Bihar Chief Minster Nitish Kumar has opened a new political gambit by taking an unambiguous stand against Narendra Modi's bid for the BJP's leadership; he would only back a secular NDA prime minister.
Mr. Kumar is a star as Bihar's first successful chief minister in decades. Although he rules it in alliance with the BJP, he has kept it on a tight leash and Modi at a safe distance. Besides, his party is close to winning a majority in the Assembly.
His anti-Modi stance has found other backers -- e.g. the Telugu Desam. This could well be the beginning of a new non-Congress-non-Left secular front which might play a significant role in the 2014 general elections.
The presidential election has catalysed a UPA-Mulayam line-up, the NDA[s weakening, and Ms. Banerjee's isolation. It has also highlighted the growing disarray and infighting in the BJP. The party is rudderless and without a credible national leader with a modicum of acceptability.
The Congress will suffer by losing Mr. Mukherjee, its most versatile politician, principal trouble-shooter and astute negotiator, with friends across the political spectrum, who has headed as many as 43 Groups of Ministers on a variety of subjects.
The gains for the Congress through his near-certain victory are likely to prove minor and temporary in comparison with its general political decline and growing loss of credibility.
The Left Front is also among the losers. The Communist Party of India and Revolutionary Socialist Party have refused to join the CPM and Forward Block in backing Mr. Mukherjee.
The CPM will find it hard to justify its decision and counter the charge that it has acted out of parochial West Bengal-centric considerations to exploit the "fissures" between the Congress and Ms. Banerjee.
As the resignation of its sole new national-level full-timer and spokesperson Prasenjit Bose suggests, this doesn't augur well for the CPM or the Left.

The writer is an eminent Indian columnist.
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