Congress's loss: Impact on Bangladesh

India's governing Congress party was badly beaten in key state elections. It seems to be a sharp rebuke by voters that could cripple the already embattled Manmohan Singh government over the final two years of its term.
The elections in the five statesUttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipurwere spread out from late January to March 3 and saw a high voter turnout, with at least 60% of the electorate voting in each state.
The party has fared abysmally in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh of 200 million people, securing only 28 of the 403 seats. This after the "crown prince" of Congress Party Rahul Gandhi toured the length and breadth of the state over three months, speaking at over 200 campaign meetings. During the last state elections in 2007, Congress picked up a miserable 22 seats.
Uttar Pradesh has historical significance for the Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty. During the past hundred years, six generations from the family have fought and won elections in Uttar Pradesh, with three of them ruling India as prime minister, including Rahul's father, Rajiv Gandhi.
To be fair, Gandhi has accepted blame for the defeat, despite public pronouncements by his faithful flock that their leader was not responsible.
It also proves that all the hard work put in by Rahul Gandhi could not translate into votes and seats because the local party organisation was weak and leadership was virtually non-existent, as was the case in Uttar Pradesh.
The results are also seen as a setback for Congress's star Rahul Gandhi, who led the campaign in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh. Some political leaders are already beginning to look past Rahul to his younger sister Priyanka, who is more charismatic and a better public speaker than her brother, as a potential political heir.
Perhaps the only consolation for the Congress Party is that the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) performed poorly in Uttar Pradesh, where it was a distant third.
Congress was expected to cash in on traditional anti-incumbency in the opposition-ruled Uttarakhand and Punjab, an important agricultural state, but it failed there too. The regional Akali Dal secured 56 seats, Congress 46 and BJP 12 in Punjab, while in Uttarakhand, Congress secured 32 and BJP 31, with neither party winning enough seats in the 70-strong house to form a government on its own.
In Goa, BJP secured 21 seats, others 10 and Congress 9 out of total 40. The only solace has been in the tiny politically insignificant north-eastern state of Manipur, but even there Congress's victory is attributed to a strong local leader rather than a powerful party.
Analysts say it shows that when the party-led federal government is battered by allegations of corruption and indecisiveness, and dogged by inflation and economic slowdown, unleashing a relatively young and sophisticated scion of the country's most famous dynasty, Rahul Gandhi, on the campaign no longer guarantees votes in today's restless and aspirational India.
A leading political philosopher, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, said that "anti-Congressism" would get a "new lease of life" after the results as the "motive for every party is now to demonstrate that the Congress cannot govern. The central government has been facing a crisis of authority. Its moral image has been battered; its capacity for negotiating with regional parties has been diminished. These results only exacerbate this crisis of authority. In the short run, expect a rocky political ride. It will take something drastic to reverse this erosion of authority."
"Anti-Congress" said The Indian Express in its headline. "Anti-Congress Mood Engulfs India," wrote The Pioneer newspaper in its headline. The Hindu said the results had "dealt a devastating blow" to the Congress. The Times of India said the Congress-led federal government now faced a "greater uncertainty." The newspaper said that the party had paid a price by "relying excessively" on Rahul Gandhi.
However, writing in The Economic Times, election analyst Yogendra Yadav warned that the results in Uttar Pradesh did not "spell the end" of Rahul Gandhi or Mayawati, the Dalit leader, whose Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)government lost power to the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh.
In today's India, it seems the political landscape is different. The domination of one centralised party no longer works because political power has devolved to regional leaders and parties. Congress, analysts believe, needs to foster and empower local leaders, but it is difficult to see that happening soon.
Congress had hoped a strong showing would rejuvenate the central government and give it leverage to widen the coalition and pressure its wayward allies to fall in line. A poor showing has left the Congress-led government limping toward the next election in 2014, even as economic growth slows and analysts say the nation is desperately in need of a transformative reform agenda.
The big question now is how these election results will impact on the Congress-led coalition government.
UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi declared that the Congress has to "pull up its socks" for the coming battles in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka. Appearing before the media on March 7, a day after the party's dismal showing in assembly elections to UP, Punjab and Goa, Gandhi said a meeting of all the leaders, including from the states, would be called to analyse the reasons. "Every election is a lesson for us, whether we win or lose, there is a lesson for us," Gandhi said.
The Times of India writes: "The results have put paid to any hopes of the UPA regaining an upper hand in decision making, and in negotiations with assertive allies like Mamata Banerjee. Mulayam's victory in UP means that Congress cannot hope to automatically get the Samajbadi Party to play the buffer against Didi's maverick ways."
Observers say loss of Congress in state elections is likely to have an impact on New Delhi delivering some of the key promised deals with Bangladesh, and it could be more difficult to persuade Ms. Mamata Banerjee of Paschimbanga to yield to the wishes of the centre to enable it to sign the Teesta Agreement and exchange of enclaves with Bangladesh.

The writer is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.