Anniversary anxieties

THESE days we are hearing much of the catchword roadmap. I mean the roadmap for holding the national polls. Last year on January 11 the nation was going nowhere, and it was on the brink of disaster. It has been one year now and the CTG is on course for holding the election.
It is heartening for the nation to see the nature and the quality of efforts the CTG is putting into the preparation of the voter list and voter identity card. This will understandably have lasting benefit for the nation.
The roadmap is to lead to the national polls within this year. It is more or less settled that the road ends there. But what is very important is that the road should be free of impediments or barriers. Who can travel the road should now be settled. What would be the criterion by which they would be permitted, or barred? What would be the rules to be followed on the road? And, most importantly, whether the travelers would be willing to take the road. These are the things that will decide when the journey to the national polls is to resume, and when will it conclude.
It is a settled fact that it is going to be a party based national polls. Accordingly, the Election Commission under the leadership of the Chief Election Commissioner Dr. A.T.M.Shamsul Huda has started talking with the major political parties. However, the process is far from being complete. It can better be said that it has stalled. The party in power during the last term, the BNP could not yet be consulted. Factional feud within it has put the EC in a dilemma.
All the three major political combines -- the BNP, the AL and the JP -- are saddled on one hand with two populist leaders in Khaleda Zia, and Sheikh Hasina and, on the other, by H.M.Ershad. All the three political parties are beholden to their chiefs on grounds of inheritance and shared spoils. The firm hold of the BNP and AL chiefs has not slackened a bit even months after their incarceration, and even though corruption cases are proceeding against them.
As for the general, he will be too happy to jump on any bandwagon that offers a lease of life at the top.
Of the two factions in BNP, the one led by Saifur Rahman is in decline sans the blessing of Khaleda Zia. The stars of Delwar are on the rise and there are unmistakable signs that he is the chosen one of the chief. It has made things difficult for the EC on deciding which one represents the main body. So the dialogue with BNP is going nowhere. It has in fact taken the steam out of the entire dialogue process.
The AL has an apparently united front about the continued primacy of Sheikh Hasina. In spite of that, chinks appear when it comes to the cantankerous issue of reform. There, even Suranjit Sengupta treads with care, diffidently pleading for a more pragmatic leadership in Sheik Hasina.
A state of emergency is in force. There are two ways of looking at it. It is all about the glass being half full and half empty. For the CTG, it is half full and that it is a means to an end. They want this incubation period for things to take a positive shape out of the chaos of who is in command and who is not, furthermore, whether their chiefs can and should step aside or be sidelined for reform.
There is a general unanimity in the county that the undertaking of the CTG should not fail or run into frustrating snags. That will invite calamity. As for the political parties, the political scenario is in a state of flux, and far from being accepted as an enabling stage where the emergency can be lifted.
The politicos are, however, chafing under the restrictive nature of the state of emergency, and citing this as a major impediment in the way of political activities to settle things. This is a stressful situation.
The quality of the outcome of the next polls depends largely on who takes part in it. Many politicians are behind bars on a number of charges. The charges are either in the process of investigation or legal procedures are already underway. There are also some against whom charges are to be framed. The task will take time since the catch is heavy.
Our political landscape is like an "unweeded garden." The weeding has to be completed expeditiously for the polls schedule to be realistic. Weeding can most naturally and conveniently take place with conviction awarded on the charges brought against the politicos. But the appeal process has to be admitted to make the trial credible. Isn't it fair to say that the time for that is short?
The EC can also have its set of standards for the participants to qualify for the polls. Fiscal transparency is at the top of it. It was there all along, but was applied in a lackadaisical manner in the past because of the pervading environment of connivance. It is believed that this time the standard will be applied the way it should be. Two other propositions are being talked about. One will effectively bar new recruits for the political parties from among those coming from the government service.
There will be a waiting period of at least one term for the new recruits from the government service. The politicians are not likely to demur because it is not a tactical issue. For the Awami League led 14-party alliance, the bee in the bonnet is the demand for the trial of the war criminals and collaborators, and their exclusion from the polls. It is a tactical issue for them, by which they can outmaneuver the BNP led 4-party alliance. This can be an extremely vexing issue for the CTG, and may even deteriorate to the extent of putting great strain on smooth holding of polls.
It appears that the polls schedule is also going to be a contentious issue. The EC expressed its plans of holding local bodies elections before the national polls. This has not found favour with the two major political parties. It is a tactical issue for them. They want the national polls result to hand them a windfall gain in local body polls result. But this will defeat the very spirit of the undertaking, and can prove to be a test of will for the CTG.
The most important thing is whether the two major political alliances will take part in the polls without their leaders, and with some of their members disqualified through conviction. This is casting a long and threatening shadow on the prospect of roadmap rolling in to an auspicious start. The grim memories of pre-1/11 days stalk the nation, and the anniversary anxieties are indeed real, and cannot be brushed aside.

Syed Maqsud Jamil is a freelance contributor to The Daily Star.