<i>India's ballistic missile defense capabilities and future threats</i>

India carried out a series of anti-ballistic missile tests recently starting with an exo-atmosheric anti-ballistic missile (ABM) system test on 12 November 2007. This was followed by an endo-atmospheric test of a Prithvi missile defense system on 1 December 2007 from Wheeler Island near Balasore in Orrisa. A high-tech instrument was utilized in the test launch which provided precise and accurate data regarding the performance of the interceptor missile. It is claimed that the missile performed much better than US PAC-3 missile.
India conducted another endo-atmospheric missile test on 6 December 2007 utilizing the Green Pine Radar, purchased from Israel. In the exo-atmospheric test the incoming ballistic missile was killed above the earth's atmosphere while the aim of endo-atmospheric test is to kill the incoming ballistic missile within the earth atmosphere at a range of about 25km. India plans to deploy ABM systems by 2015 and these tests are a demonstration of India's determination to follow through with its missile defense systems for enhancing its deterrence power. Due to technical shortcomings in previous ABM projects like Trishul and Akash, India had approached Israel for cooperation in this field.
It is often said that Indian BMD capability would lead to instability in the South Asian region and an offensive-defensive arms race. This is because India's defensive measures are likely to be responded to by other countries by building or increasing their offensive weapons systems. If India acquires a BMD capability, its neighbors such as China and Pakistan would feel that their counter strike capability may be insufficient and therefore their deterrence is threatened. As a result they would engage in acquiring additional missiles or develop a BMD capability. However, in the context of India's no first-use doctrine the development and possible deployment of BMD is important both for its deterrence value and to enhance security.
China has put India's northern region under threat through reorganizing its missile facilities near Delingha in Qinghai province. According to recent satellite images, China is putting medium range missiles in this area which has a range of over 2500km. The deployment of medium range ballistic missiles in this region could put northern India, including New Delhi within range. China is also working to replace its liquid fuel ballistic missiles with solid fuel ones. Solid fuel ballistic missiles have greater advantage over liquid fuel missiles as they are more accurate and easy and quick to launch. China is threatened by the US BMD program and is busy in modernizing its ballistic missile program. It has carried out tests of advanced version of DF-31 or DF-31A, which has a range of approximately 12,000km. It has multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV) which have the capability to hold 3 warheads each. Besides this, China is producing short range missiles which are comparable to Agni and deploying them on Tibet facing India. China treats this missile as "conventional," while India treats it as "nuclear." As a result, the conventional balance is shifting in favor of China.
China has also been helping Pakistan in its missile program since the beginning. China has provided at least 30 M-11 missile and its components to Pakistan, which is capable of carrying nuclear weapon up to a range of 300km. China is also building missile production facility in Pakistan.. Today many analysts have raised concerns that Pakistan missile program is more robust than India and New Delhi is lagging behind. With Chinese help, Pakistan has moved ahead of India in developing nuclear missile systems. Pakistan's Hatf-III missile is compared with India's Prithvi missile. But, Hatf-III is a solid fuel missile while Prithvi is a liquid fuel missile. The use of solid fuel is of crucial significance because of its operational advantages. Solid fuel is non-corrosive and easy to handle. Pakistan's missile capability could become of concern due to its current domestic instability. There is fear of Islamist takeover of the country or civil war since the declaration of the emergency rule in the region. Under such conditions, the nuclear and missile capability of Pakistan could prove to be a danger to India.
India has always looked at its two neighbors with a degree of apprehension. Although, conditions at present are not tense but, with the border issue not resolved and rhetoric over China's claims over Arunachal Pradesh rising and Kashmir still tense there are greater reasons for Indian concern. India is conscious of maintaining its territorial integrity and need to preserve its deterrence for this purpose. China and Pakistan will continue to busy themselves in development and modernization of the missiles regardless of whether India develops its BMD capability or not. In fact, their robust missiles programs have forced India to look to the option of missile defense and to move away form its traditional opposition to missile defense programs. Therefore, it has become important for India to look to a BMD program so as to maintain its deterrence and to deal with possible future threats.
The author is Research officer, IPCS
Published under arrangement with IPCS, New Delhi.