Cancun reflections

A unique form of protest at Cancun.

In the long list of disappointments arising out of management and outcome of COP15 in Copenhagen, prominent was the fact that the integrity of the UNFCCC process had been undermined.
It is thus to the credit of Mexico's presidency of COP16 that it not only realised this deficit but worked methodically towards restoring faith and confidence in the process by creating the political space and environment for meaningful negotiations and constructive interactions amongst the Parties.
During a side event that Bangladesh had organised during the MDG Summit in New York in September this year and one which was chaired by our Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, I had the pleasure of meeting and speaking with Mexico's charismatic and impressive Foreign Minister, Patricia Espinoza.
She identified the problem of the negotiations in terms of the process and reiterated this when I had an opportunity to question her during IPU's Parliamentary meeting in Cancun on how she as president of COP16 would restore faith and confidence amongst the Parties and uphold integrity of UNFCCC process. She responded that Mexico believed in an inclusive process and complete transparency and that there would not be any hidden texts or agenda.
Other than skillfully winning over, at the end of the day, the Parties with this open approach and reaching consensus within the Convention framework, the other benefit of this measured and focused strategy of Mexico was that it helped to play down and manage expectations.
From the beginning, Mexico successfully projected and presented COP16 as an intermediate stop between Copenhagen and COP17 in Durban, South Africa, in November 2011. The objective was not to reach grand agreements but to keep the process going so that when we are in Durban for COP17, there is a solid foundation and framework to reach newer and higher heights.
My assessment of COP15, which also I had the good fortune of participating in, is that it failed in part due to the fact that it became a Summit of World Leaders and Heads of Government rather than a UN Convention.
The overall and media hype and the huge expectations that such a Summit understandably generates, was perhaps paradoxically also a reason why expected agreements could not be reached. The process in Copenhagen froze and stood in virtual paralysis in anticipation of the high level segment delivering and resolving all pending issues. Unfortunately, the global leaders had neither the will nor the time available to deliver.
COP16 on the other hand shows that a low-key approach with skillfully managed expectations and allowing the inclusive process to function and operate, as it should, allows for a greater level and prospect of advancement and success.
In terms of concrete steps and actions, establishment of a Global Climate Fund under the COP is a very significant step forward and will no doubt build further trust so very necessary to achieve game-changing progress in Durban.
Much still needs to be done to ensure that the fund starts to flow, but at least the developing countries (including LDCs, SIDS as strongly advocated by Bangladesh) can now know and see that the outline of the fund is a reality and they have a major stake and ownership in its management thereof.
Bangladesh too will secure its rightful share of significant funding. The challenge here though is to develop institutional capacity and a sound knowledge base, and have in place a requisite protocol of checks and balances, to ensure that funds are utilised in a transparent and prudent manner and optimum benefits do flow to the victims of climate change.
The decision of COP16 to establish a Cancun Adaptation Framework and the recognition of the need to look at greater detail at urgent and growing adaptation needs of the most vulnerable countries in particular and the developing world in general who have to whether the worst impacts of climate change whilst having contributed least to the problem and having also the least ability to adapt, is a welcome and necessary development which will be hopefully be fleshed out and resolved satisfactorily by COP17 in Durban.
It is also heartening to note that the text of the discussions in Cancun recognises migration and the plight of individuals displaced and uprooted from their communities due to climate change, and that for Bangladesh this is an imperative.
Cancun was a significant advancement in context of Copenhagen's failures and shortcomings. It effectively salvaged and saved the process from the brink of collapse and in so doing has given the world a lifeline, albeit tenuous as much still needs and remains to be done on the road to Durban. The critical question to ask is, has it done enough to save the earth and prevent runaway climate change?
Most worryingly, the mitigation scenario continues to be bleak. The deep emission cuts so desperately and urgently necessary remain unaddressed, and neither does the Cancun Agreement provide clarity or the mechanism on how global temperature rises will be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Based on the most optimistic scenario and pledges made by Annex 1 countries thus far, we are now looking at temperature increase of close to 4 degrees Celsius, and this hugely impacts on the planet's ability to soak up CO2.
Currently, 50% of man-produced emissions are absorbed by the sea and by plants on land. However, the amount of CO2 that can be absorbed decreases as temperatures rise, and we will soon reach a tipping point from which temperatures will go up even faster. This will prevent us from ever returning to safe climate levels and conditions.
Related to the above, the critically important issue of agreeing on a peak year for emissions has also not been resolved and, hence, the prospect of runaway climate change is a clear and distinct possibility.
What happens after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 is still uncertain and is yet another major area requiring resolution in Durban.
Whilst adaptation is a definite priority, and reality, for Bangladesh given that even if the world could achieve zero emissions tomorrow, the current Green House Gases concentrations already in the atmosphere will mean that it will be a good ten to twenty years before the benefits of zero emissions can be enjoyed. At the end of the day, mitigation is the best form of adaptation and the more major emitters can mitigate now the less the world will need to adapt in future.
The adaptation string can only be stretched to a certain point, and then it snaps and is no longer sustainable. We may have access to more adaptation funding than we can use or need but then what is the point if due to continued emissions, catastrophic and irreversible climate change and puts our existence in jeopardy?
Cancun has certainly restored and saved the process but it has not done enough to save mankind. That task is now squarely on the shoulders of COP 17 and that will possibly be the last opportunity for governments to act in accordance with what science so clearly and categorically has been demanding us to do.

Saber H. Chowdhury MP is Chair of Bangladesh Parliament's All Party Group on Climate Change & Environment. Email: [email protected]