River erosion to displace over 16,000

At least 16,650 people might be displaced in 14 districts by this year due to erosion by the Jamuna and Padma rivers at 38 points stretching over 145 kilometres of riverbank, morphologists have said.
They came up with the forecast in a report "Prediction of riverbank erosion along the Jamuna, Ganges and Padma rivers in 2010" published recently under "Jamuna-Meghna River Erosion Mitigation Project" of Water Development Board.
Analysts from Centre for Environment and Geographic Information System (CEGIS) made the forecast after analysing satellite images of the three rivers.
About 11,510 people might become homeless because of erosion by the Jamuna and 5,040 by the Padma.
Besides, 21 educational offices, two village markets, seven government offices, one non-government office, four health centres are vulnerable to river erosion.
The Jamuna might cause erosion at 26 points and the Padma at 12 points. Laterally, the erosion can be over 100 metres at these points.
The two rivers have eroded 158,780 hectares of land since 1973. But they also accreted 44,210 hectares of land at the same time, said the morphologists.
The rivers are widening every year, they said.
Although 38 points were identified as most vulnerable to erosion, other locations might also be at risk where lateral erosion could be limited to 100 metres.
The CEGIS said this year 1,655 hectares of cultivable land, settlements over an area of 632 hectares, embankment covering an area of 1,850 metres and roads stretching up to 7,540 metres might be lost to river erosion.
The CEGIS morphologists have been making predictions on river erosion since 2002.
"Our prediction was proved correct in over 70 percent of cases last year," said CEGIS Executive Director Dr Giasuddin.
The CEGIS last year predicted that the Jamuna would cause erosion at 24 points and the Padma at 16 points.
According to their recent prediction, the Jamuna this year will erode about 95 kilometres of riverbank at six points in Kurigram, four each in Gaibandha, Bogra, Sirajganj and Jamalpur, two in Pabna and one each in Tangail and Manikganj.
About 1,150 hectares of land and settlements in an area of 306 hectares are vulnerable to erosion this year.
River erosion might damage flood embankments in four locations and there is 50 percent probability that the embankments will be breached there.
The Padma might cause erosion at one point in Nawabganj, two in Rajshahi, four in Kushtia, one each in Pabna, Rajbari, and Faridpur and two in Shariatpur.
The two mighty rivers last year eroded about 1,932 hectares of land, settlements over an area of 273 hectares, and 60 metres of embankment and 6,200 metres of roads, the report said.
At least 17 educational institutions, 14 mosques, four government offices and two markets were also lost to them at the same time.