Evolving a strategic matrix

IN the backdrop of an increasingly assertive China and an uncertain Pakistan, India has embarked on a major strategic offensive which includes taking American allies on board, cooperating with countries that are apprehensive of China and, last but not least, using its more than average economic growth to entice export led economies of Asia. If one analyses state visits to India in the last six months, it becomes clear that though climate change and WTO negotiations have been the issues discussed with trans-Atlantic countries, however, economic resilience has proved that India rather than being a 'swing state' is very much on the path of becoming the 'second state' in Asia. The strategic community in India has witnessed visits by the Japanese Prime Minister, German President, Canadian Prime Minister, Australian Prime Minister, South Korean President, Vietnamese Defence Minister and Malaysian Prime Minister in a period of three months. This shows India's elevation as a relevant regional power. India has initiated a comparatively quick defence procurement process and defence budget allocation has also risen dramatically in the last five years, despite the fact that each year thousands of crores are left unutilized.
In its eastern neighbourhood, India has signed a defence MoU with Vietnam which includes provisions of training, defence cooperation, cooperation against piracy and joint exercises. Vietnam is currently strengthening its navy and has ordered six kilo-class submarines from Russia and is also keen on the Russian Sukhois. Japan also has shown interest in not only economic cooperation with India but also over an 'Action Plan on Security Cooperation' which points to the fact that the 'China threat' is not being ignored under the usual posturing. Issues such as areas of strategic interest, defence cooperation including joint exercises and non traditional threats are highlighted. While China has been harping on the need to secure its supplies and has projected its Indian Ocean policy, India should also devise South China Sea policy on the same argument of 'securing trade and energy supplies'. The visit of Malaysian Prime Minister to India in January 2010 has buttressed India's position both in the economic and strategic realms. The Malaysian Prime Minister did endorse a joint statement pertaining to labour welfare, defence, science and technology cooperation, energy, climate change and higher education but the stress was on negotiating a favourable trade agreement with Malaysia. Southeast Asian countries are clamouring for Indian investors' attention and Indian markets while India is keen on markets for its services industry. With the rapid growth of services industry, greater than 35-40 per cent each year, India is keen to cash in on the knowledge base. Also the services industry in Singapore has reached a threshold level and India wants to diversify its services base. In that case Malaysia acts as a lucrative alternative. Malaysia wants to export its palm oil to India on reduced tariffs because of the fact that Indonesia and Malaysia are competing for India's palm oil markets. The Joint Study Reports for both countries have been submitted to the respective governments and economic bargaining has begun. Economics is bestowing strategic leverages to India. Though India cannot compete with China, it surely can erode the cost advantages of the rising economic superpower.
In the strategic context, the enhancement of the Andaman and Nicobar base with the proposal of deploying more naval ships (currently there are only about 3-4 logistics ships stationed in the Andaman and Nicobar Command), as well as the proposal for stationing two Sukhoi squadrons in the island group, shows trends towards dual use in terms of securing the idyllic islands as well as projecting power. Mincing no words, it is also important that through the years in the Annual reports of Ministry of Defence, China has appeared as a threat and Maritime Doctrine 2009 also caters to such a strategic compulsion. India's diversified defence procurement as well as development of the long range missiles like Agni V shows that the will exists to meet strategic challenges. Also cooperation with countries like Korea and Australia shows that India is working on the second arc concept which spans from Japan, Korea and Australia. A number of agreements have been signed with these countries over a wide range of issues. With Korea, there are possibilities of defence cooperation more so in areas of joint exercise, production as well as export of defence equipment, perhaps even the construction of nuclear power plants in India. India is also looking for compatibility with Australia, in spite of the attacks on students the two countries are carefully calibrating their strategic needs and mutual interests. The two countries' Joint Declaration on counter-terrorism, defence and maritime security clearly articulates the strategic convergence. India's current initiatives are thus sure to create in the coming decade a 'strategic parallax'.
Source: IPCS, New Delhi.