Lessons from Cyclone Sidr

NOT since the last 37 years has Bangladesh suffered a natural disaster like the cyclone Sidr of November 15, an unusually powerful storm that triggered giant waves up to 30ft (7m) high and killed more than 10,000 people in the south western coastal belt of Bangladesh covering the districts of Bagerhat, Barisal, Patuakhali, Pirozepur, Khulna and Satkhira. Even five days after the calamity, in village after village along the battered roads of the coastal districts, the survivors of the storm, their cheeks hollow and eyes sunken from hunger wait in vain for relief to come.
True, natural disasters are a universal reality. But in modern times, it is the preparedness that counts. Damage can be minimised, rehabilitation can be effective, but only if a nation has an organised disaster management plan. Unhappily, Bangladesh does not.
Accompanied by 260 kmph ravaging winds and sea surge as high as 30ft that swept about 20 km inland, a grade 5 hurricane, the highest level possible, devastated 23 districts in the south western part of Bangladesh at midnight on November15. If the death of thousands was tragic, the slowness the relief operation was simply pathetic, even though Bangladesh is visited by floods, cyclones and surges with amazing frequency, and we have enough practice in relief work.
The image of Firoza or Minara weeping over the lifeless bodies of their 7 and 8 year old sons and daughters brought home the grief and utter helplessness of families living along Bangladesh's coastline after the fury of Sidr on November 15. It is nerve shattering to watch on TV hundreds of grief stricken people running towards the lone helicopter carrying some relief materials in a denuded island completely devastated by the fury of the hurricane accompanied by tidal surge as high as 30 ft. Gigantic walls of water smashed into the coastline, washing away everything in their path. The backwash dragged hundreds of people into the sea.
Although a lot is being done by the by the present CTG, with gigantic efforts by the army and navy personnel, the extent of the tragedy is such that everyone must pitch in to make a difference. As one sees hungry people running helter-skelter for food and water without any success, one is inclined to think that inertia prevailed there, as if a nation so often visited by tragedy has become inured to it.
It is a harrowing sight as bodies keep coming towards the shoreline -- twisted, bloated and broken -- washing up from the overflowing creeks and ponds around the villages. Death and its nauseating stench are everywhere as TV crews and newsmen brave the inhospitable road conditions and the deathly situation prevailing in the devastated areas to file their reports.
Advance warnings were issued, but not so effectively, all along the coastal belt from Chittagong to Barisal to Patuakhali to Khulna to Bagerhat. The warnings issued should have been specific, giving the speed of the storm and the height of the surge (of a two storied building that would take away everything in its path), in an effort to create a sense of real danger in the minds of the gullible people in the vulnerable areas who are, by nature and tradition, fatalistic and take all warnings too lightly.
From now on, apart from relaying the great danger signal number 10, the announcement must explain in clear terms the consequences of non-compliance repeatedly in local dialect over Bangladesh Betar, that could reach even the remotest places of the country, out on the sea or inside the forest. Even if many people along the coastal belt knew about the impending storm, people along the Barisal and Khulna belt were less sure about the ferocity of the strike, and the plain fact is that these places do not have enough cyclone shelters to accommodate such a huge number of people. True, many people were evacuated to some shelters, but those who did not leave their houses perished in the engulfing water or in the open.
The fact is that thousands of fishermen, mostly hired by trawler owners on a five month contract, were out on the sea without any portable radio sets (because they are not allowed to carry these gadgets lest they should come back to the shore on hearing about bad weather condition, which would entail loss for their business), and this time they simply perished in the sea because they had no knowledge of the calamity that was advancing. Moreover, as I experienced during a 4-day visit to the Sunderbans last year, portable radio sets available in the country do not work properly in the high seas. But some mobile phone companies have networks near Kochikhali, Kotka and Hiron point.
During our stay in the Sundarbans, Dhaka experienced heavy rain and storm as I could learn from one of our travel mates, Dr. Akmal Hossain of Dhaka University, who had the reports through a mobile phone message from one of his relatives at Dhaka. Alarmed at what might happen over the Bay of Bengal and deep inside the forest, I made desperate efforts to tune the radio I had, but without any success. This suggests a dissonance between the frequency of broadcast and that of reception in the radio sets being marketed.
Most importantly, there has to be a drastic change in the broadcasting of weather bulletins. Most people in the far-flung areas of the country near the sea belt do not understand the implications of signal numbers. They must be taught what these numbers mean, and in a situation where the weathermen are somewhat sure that the nature of the calamity advancing towards the land warrants action, they should inform the head of the government forthwith. And the government should instruct the radio and TV channels to suspend all scheduled broadcasts and start issuing warning signals and spelling out the action to be taken both by officials and citizens and, most importantly, by the Red Crescent volunteers, Union Parishad chairmen, Thana level officers and NGOs. This disaster may trigger an initiative for a warning network and action plan for people of our coastal belt areas.
In just five hours, the whole coastal belt from Barisal to Borguna to Golachipa to Bagerhat seems to have slipped into an apocalypse. Primitive survival instincts surfaced as hungry, homeless and desperate villagers roamed the battered roads and devastated fields in the forlorn hope of getting something to eat and a cup of non-salty water to drink. It is a painful to watch grief stricken, hungry people running towards an advancing helicopter and rioting for food. Diarrhea and intestinal diseases are spreading, as there is no drinkable water in the battered areas.
Hundreds of villages in Sidr's path were wiped off and the death toll is still unknown. Guesstimates put the toll at 10,000 dead, but it could be much more. The trauma is such that no one is counting the dead, only the survivors. An estimated 15 million people spread over 23 districts have been affected. Conservative figures put the number of families affected at around 8.87 lakh, apart from 2.42 lakh cattle dead, and standing crops spread across 23,000 acres were instantly destroyed. Overall, the damage caused is said to be around Taka 2000 crore.
With the administration somewhat non-existent in remote areas, army units, naval ships and coast guards are spearheading the relief efforts in the battered areas, clearing roads and trying to reach emergency supplies to the people. But, despite the best of intentions, distribution will be a logistical nightmare. This is a critical time. People without access to food and water cannot survive for long. Even if the government has given them some money in the wake of the disaster, what will they do with it when markets have been wiped out, and all stocks of food items like rice, potato, onion and pulses have been washed out by the heavy on rush of water surge.
It was no ill wind that brought the southern coasts of Bangladesh to this pass. Meteorologists, through remote sensing and satellite images, gave indications that a fierce hurricane like storm had formed away from Mongla. For two days it gathered strength, and this delay factor made people in the administration believe that the intensity had lessened and Bangladesh would be spared. But now public memory says that it was the strongest hurricane or storm surge in Bangladesh's history, probably more powerful than the 1970 and 1991 tempests that hit the entire coastal belt of Bangladesh, killing several lakh people in the islands of Kutubdia, Maheshkhali, Sandwip, Patuakhali and Bhola in 1970.
Cyclones are graded 1 to 5, depending on their intensity and damage potential. With unusually warm seawater, about 26 degrees Celsius, the depression sucks in increasing amounts of water vapour. Clouds increase and the wind gusts at an abnormally high speed, pounding every thing in its way. Sidr was grade 5, a cyclone or hurricane of catastrophic intensity. Borguna, Golachipa, Sharonkhola and Dublar char took the worst pounding, with thousands meeting watery death in the temporary fishing village of Dublar char. The gale was at its furious worst in these places.
The Sidr disaster will remind all nations, leaders and people in the world how vulnerable we really are when confronting nature. The real difficulty with sustaining a useful connection with nature comes from the fact that nature does not seek to make a connection with us. It is a hard truth to swallow but nature does not care if we live or die. One can just surmise that the natural world exists to test our capacity to care for or preserve ourselves. We have to understand that the earth is one big natural system, and that adding greenhouse gas, torching natural forests and destroying coral reefs will eventually threaten the wellbeing of everyone in the big global village we all live in. However powerful and affluent the nations may be, nature's fury is relentless, heartless and heedless.
There are lessons to be learnt from the terrible devastation by Sidr. Lessons so obvious that they should have been learnt a long time ago, but because our politicians are a different breed they have remained unlearnt through all the natural disasters that we have faced over the years. Previous governments could have built two storied mosques and primary schools with donor assistance in these vulnerable areas that could be used as cyclone and flood shelters during such a calamity.
After so much upheaval in the political arena of the country, people now expect that the worst of times will bring out the best of humanity. Official machinery, both civil and army, and committed individuals may bring about a sea change in the lives of a bruised people along the coast of Bangladesh.

Md. Asadullah Khan is a former teacher of physics and Controller of Examinations, BUET.