Will Indo-Pakistan relations improve ?

INDIA and Pakistan -- two south Asian rivals -- are still finding ways and means to improve their ties following the deadly Mumbai attacks that are proving to be a stumbling block in the improvement of their ties. A recent meeting between their foreign ministers in New York, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly(UNGA) session, has not exactly broken the stalemate even though two sides agreed to remain in touch and make efforts to overcome the problems that are hindering the normalisation of ties.
The attack in Mumbai, India's commercial hub, last year, came as s serious setback to New Delhi-Islamabad relations as India charges that the attackers came from Pakistan and targeted landmark sites in the city, including the imposing Taj Mahal hotel, killing many people and injuring many others. After a phase of accusations and counter-accusations, Pakistan finally accepted that the attackers had come from its soil, but denied any form of state patronisation to the ghastly incident.
Only one of the six attackers, Ajmal Kashab, survived, and is now facing trial. Pakistan has also put some people on trial for alleged links with the attack, but New Delhi continues to doubt the sincerity in punishing the masterminds of the attack and the process of the trial. This situation remains an impediment to the bilateral relations, and the talks between Indian external affairs minister S.M.Krishna and his Pakistani counterpart Mehmood Shah Qureshi in the UN could not remove the bottleneck.
The two countries, ever since their birth as independent nations in 1947, have had hostile relations -- albeit with occasional improvement in the ties. Till the Mumbai attack in November, 2008, there was a phase with a better ambience because of the positive attitude adopted by both in normalising relations. But both countries also had complaints in different forms about the other's approach. When agreements were signed between New Delhi and Washington on civilian nuclear cooperation, there was some irritation in Pakistan. On the other hand, India felt that "terrorist" activities in the Kashmir region had not receded in the manner that New Delhi expected and obviously blamed Islamabad for this.
The Indo-US military accord and later the agreement on nuclear technology were not taken gracefully in Pakistan. From the Indian point of view, Pakistan had failed to live up to the expectation in discouraging or stopping cross-border insurgency in the Kashmir area. Besides, certain comments from both sides were not seen as being not compatible to their efforts to furthering friendship. However, the topsy-turvy ties received a big setback following the attack on Mumbai, which is still reeling from the shock.
Indo-Pakistan ties have become a matter of discussions in the larger international arena also, for the simple reason that their relations constitute an important factor for peace and stability in South Asia and, in a way, at the global level. Optimism had existed in many quarters that the two nuclear-powered inimical nations were finding common ground to improve their badly strained ties. Initially, the Saarc summit in Pakistan had provided a badly needed dialogue at the level of the top leadership of the two countries on the sidelines of the conference, and the outcome of this contact had remarkably changed the nature of the New Delhi-Islamabad relationship.
Later, the Saarc summit in April, 2007, in New Delhi, where Pakistan's the then prime minister Shawkat Aziz attended, helped further develop the ties. With the change of guards in Islamabad, elements of uncertainty did persist about the shape of Indo-Pakistan ties. Anyway, the new government has committed itself to the peace process.
One cannot probably lose sight of the fact that the peace process is contingent upon settlement or understanding on the main bone of contention, which is obviously the Kashmir dispute. The two sides adopt diametrically opposite positions on the issue, but are showing signs of readiness for flexibility. But how far this flexibility can go is the moot point. They have agreed to discuss the dispute but both have compulsions since it is too complex a dispute, although not beyond settlement.
Following the changes in Pakistan, it was worthwhile to note that the indications emanating from Islamabad on relationship with India are encouraging. President Asif Ali Zardari commented on a number of occasions that peace must be the first priority of both countries, and Zardari says that Kashmir is a "solvable" problem and a new approach is required for its settlement. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani also echoed the same, while both also stressed on the settlement of the Kashmir problem. But both Zardari and Raza Jilani are not oblivious of the fact that problems like Kashmir cannot be ignored by them.
On the other hand, Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh speaks about peace, but is also attaching this process to issues like "infiltration" from Pakistan and trial of the masterminds of the Mumbai attack and of Laskar-e-Taiba chief Hafiz Saeed. The Indian premier had earlier met both President Zardari and Prime Minister Jilani on the sidelines of international conferences and reiterated Delhi's intention for peace, but attached these conditions. Defence Minister A.K. Anthony recently charged that Pakistan was aiding and encouraging the "infiltration" into Kashmir and demanded that this must stop altogether.
But the problems surrounding the Mumbai attack prevent resumption of Indo-Pakistan dialogue at any level. The two countries differ on the process and procedure of the trial of those believed to be linked with the attack. India insists that "government agencies" were involved in the planning of the onslaught that killed 166 people, but Pakistan vehemently denies the charge. India says it has given Pakistan sufficient evidences about the offenders, but Islamabad is not convinced.
It will be height of folly to expect that these differences will be resolved soon to the extent that bilateral contacts can resume in a meaningful way, covering many areas of cooperation that earlier existed in the form of composite dialogue. Since India is the victim of the Mumbai attack, it will be plausible to conclude that the onus for removing the misunderstanding on this issue largely lies with Pakistan. While resolution of the vexed and main bone of contention, the Kashmir problem, can be kept on the backburner, all efforts must be made to facilitate the bilateral talks, at least at the level of foreign secretaries -- to be followed by their foreign ministers. Delay in this direction will only cause immense harm, not only to these two countries but also to the South Asian region where peace and stability are largely contingent upon the relationship between the two main nations.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist and analyst on international affairs.