'Indonesian city warned for years of quake disaster'

Scientists have warned for years that the Indonesian city of Padang is a disaster waiting to happen because of strain on a nearby fault line. After this week's quake they say worse is likely to come.
The city on Sumatra island is located between two lines of high seismic activity -- the Great Sumatran fault on the mainland to the east, and the Sumatra trench under the ocean to the west.
Scientists have long anticipated a major quake there caused by the grinding of the Indo-Australian plate and the Eurasian tectonic plate, which are moving towards each other at a rate of up to six centimetres (three inches) per year.
Predictions have been issued "since early 2004, before the great 2004 tsunami and earthquake," California Institute of Technology geologist Kerry Sieh told AFP, referring to the Indian Ocean disaster that killed more than 220,000.
A series of big shakes -- including a magnitude 8.2 that struck Bengkulu province in September 2007, and one off Aceh that triggered the 2004 tsunami -- showed that all the segments had released their energy, except that of Padang.
The 7.6-magnitude quake that struck the West Sumatra capital on Wednesday has killed at least 529 people and left thousands buried under rubble in the city of nearly a million people.
But pressure on the fault means a vastly larger 8.8-magnitude quake, coupled with a five metre high wall of water, is a virtual certainty in the coming decades, Sieh said.
"This earthquake today is a flea compared to this tiger of a quake that is coming," he said.
"It's 100 percent likely. The question is when is the date. The strain has been building off Padang for this 8.8 for 175 years."
Experts have called on the government to invest in quake-resistant buildings and widen Padang's roads -- predicting an exodus of about 500,000 people in the event of a major quake. But little has been done.
Geological Disaster Mitigation and Volcanology Centre head Surono said there is a "perception that building such expensive infrastructure is not economically viable" because of the uncertainty of earthquake prediction.
"West Sumatra is like a supermarket for geological disasters. There are active volcanoes, landslides, land quakes caused by faults," he told AFP.
"Being close to the faults means Padang is always prone to earthquakes. Every day, there is a tectonic quake there, but they may be too small for any effect to be felt."
The Indonesian Red Crescent society said the government had enough funds to make significant improvements to Padang's infrastructure, but money had been lost through corruption.
"There's so much corruption in Indonesia and many corrupt government officials, those in all levels of government," Indonesian Red Crescent secretary-general Djazuli Ambari told AFP.
"Money is available and it shouldn't be a problem building houses with strong foundations, but unfortunately, funds are misused," he said.
The government's Disaster Management Agency, however, said that money was not the only issue.
"It's difficult to build with materials strong enough to withstand quakes and not just bamboo and wood," agency spokesman Priyadi Kardono said. "We need time to do this."