China Myanmar border tension

A Myanmar soldier standing guard at the Myanmar-China border town of Laukkai.Photo: AFP

THE border clashes between Myanmar government forces and rebels on the Chinese border have demonstrated that Myanmar has to fight with the ethnic rebels in the border areas and China is not comfortable with such events.
The situation erupted on 27th August when the Myanmar army sent troops to occupy the Kokang territory following the refusal of several ethnic militias to convert into border security forces under the authority of the Myanmar military.
After several days of clashes between Myanmar ethnic groups and government forces, 30,000 refugees crossed into China's border in the Yunnan province, some of whom were rebels. They handed over their guns and uniforms to Chinese authorities.
The United Nations and Chinese officials say that civilian refugees have streamed into China to escape the fighting, after hundreds of Myanmar soldiers moved into Kokang, a mostly ethnic Chinese region run by a local militia. The rebels constitute about 150,000 in the Kokang territory and until last August they had truce with the Myanmar government.
The conflict area is on the fringe of the drug-producing Golden Triangle region where China, Myanmar, Thailand and Laos meet. Many of the ethnic armies there have used the drug trade to finance their operations. The Kokang and neighbouring Wa regions, both isolated by mountainous terrain and a lack of roads, were traditionally Myanmar's main poppy growing areas.
The government announcement on state-run TV news broadcasts in Myanmar said the fighting was over but had killed twenty-six soldiers and police and left forty-seven wounded. It said eight bodies of Kokang rebels were found and 600 pieces of weapons seized. The announcement said fighting had started 27th August and ended on 29th August. TV news showed still photographs of police corpses and Kokang people fleeing.
China's official news service, Xinhua, has reported that a number of refugees have begun returning to their homes in Myanmar now that the fighting has stopped. Chinese officials assisted a number of refugees by providing tents, food, and medical aid.
In a rare move by China, an ally of the Myanmar government, the country's foreign ministry spoke out urging Myanmar to "properly handle domestic problems and maintain stability in the China-Myanmar border region" and to "protect the security and legal rights" of its citizens in the country, reports The Financial Times of London.
Meanwhile, the Chinese media reports that Myanmar officials have apologized for any Chinese casualties and thanked its neighbour for assisting refugees.
Some observers said that top senior General Than Shwe's decision to send troops into Kokang territory despite China's concerns showed his determination to demonstrate that his government wanted to send a clear message to rebels in Kokang territory.
The Los Angeles Times reports that the Myanmar government will move an additional 3,000 troops to the northern area of the country. Regional analysts say the government's apparent objective is to rout out the ethnic militants before the elections.
Meanwhile, The China Post reports that clashes between Myanmar ethnic groups and government forces are likely to continue, because none of the ethnic groups' concerns have been addressed and the military government is working to strengthen its grasp on power before the country's national elections.
Unless the Myanmar government can persuade the different ceasefire groups to accept its terms, it is likely that similar confrontations will occur. Several ethnic minorities in Myanmar are armed and resist pressure from the government to join with the military and become border guards.
There will be more fighting, more tension and more conflict because the Myanmar regime will continue to try to force these groups to surrender their arms ahead of the elections.
Despite international criticisms, the Myanmar government is determined to move forward with the 2010 general election. Foreign observers say that under the guidelines of the 2008 constitution, it is by and large a forgone conclusion that the military will hold on to power after election. It will be the first time the country has had elections in nearly 20 years.
China and Myanmar have very close cooperative relations. These days Myanmar is awash with infrastructure projects, highways are being cut through jungles and a few dams are also being planned on the Salween River for hydro-electricity.
China reportedly controls many of the commercial banks in Myanmar today. Chinese nationals are seen in the country in large numbers, particularly in the north. The country's second-largest centre, Mandalay, is believed to have at least 20% per cent Chinese of its total population.
The recent clashes with Myanmar rebels in the north have made China worried because it needs stability around its borders. Both China and the ruling military government in Myanmar have a particular interest in the return of stability to the region, as China has plans to build oil and gas pipelines through Myanmar. There are also nearly 10,000 Chinese business people in the fractious area of Northern Myanmar.
At one time there has been an understanding that China will not come west of Irrawaddy basin but currently the presence of Chinese is everywhere. India has been alarmed by the strong presence of China in Myanmar.
The close relations between China and Myanmar have changed the policy of India toward Myanmar. India now is keen to develop good relations with the military government for its strategic reasons. It is reported that India is connecting a road link from northeastern states to the seaport Sittwe (Akyab).
While it remains uncertain if the relative calm will remain, the Myanmar government may have done considerable damage to its relationship with China, reports The Irrawaddy, a magazine published in Thailand by Myanmar exiles. However, many analysts say that the bilateral relations between China and Myanmar are so strong and mutually beneficial, no permanent damage will occur because of the border clashes.

The author is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.