New government likely to face adverse fallout

Today, Bangladesh is holding its 10th National Election, considered the most controversial and chaotic since its independence in 1971, in which the winner is known even before the first ballots are cast.
In a last-ditch effort to stop the vote, Khaleda Zia's alliance has called for a nationwide hartal on top of the indefinite nationwide blockade, besides making a last-minute appeal to the people not to go to the polling stations to vote. Her statement came from her Gulshan residence, which has remained under heavy security cordon raising speculation that she is under house arrest, an opposition claim denied by the government.
In spite of the violence, deaths and destruction it appears that Sheikh Hasina will sail through this Sunday's vote and she is going to be the third-time prime minister in a nation that looks more politically polarised than ever.
Still, she faces the challenge of ensuring a reasonably acceptable turn-out in the vote. In the most controversial election held by Khaleda Zia on February 15, 1996, the turn-out was registered at 26.5% amid a successful Hasina-led opposition boycott. Even if Hasina is able to better this turn-out it will be an uphill task to prove its credibility.
Few in Bangladesh believe this Sunday's election and its outcome will be acceptable to the people of Bangladesh. Neither will be it seen as credible by the international community.
That no international organisation is sending any team to observe the election is a strong enough indication that it is not acceptable to them. Hasina's crackdown on the domestic opposition might have worked in taking the heat off its campaign, but on the overseas front it is the international community which seems to be in the mood of cold shouldering Hasina's next government.
If Hasina can hold on until the formation of her next government after January 24 (when the still-alive 9th Parliament is due to expire), her first challenge will be get the new government recognised by the development partners. It's not that the donors will impose sanctions or suspend the diplomatic contacts. What is most likely is that their extreme disappointment over the irresponsible response from the county's major political players is likely to cause misunderstanding between Bangladesh and the international community.
Bangladesh's international isolation may come in various forms. Hasina's first test will be to get the foreign diplomats, especially from the donor nations, to attend the installation ceremony of her new cabinet. The focus then will be on whether the diplomats turn up at the oath-taking ceremony. If they do, that will be seen as a softening of their stance by the donors with the expectation that Hasina will keep her promise of holding a constructive dialogue with the opposition to hold another election (11th Parliamentary polls) with BNP and other major parties taking part in it. Who knows what will happen if the diplomats stay away from the ceremony.
What is going to happen is still not clear. In a regular briefing in Washington US State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf was asked if the US will recognise the results of this Sunday's election. She did not give a clear answer, saying only that she does not want to go ahead of the subject.

The writer is former Bureau Chief, AP.