India may see Covid-19 peak in mid-November: study

As the total number of coronavirus cases went up across India by more than 11,000 for the third straight day, a study has predicted that the country will reach the peak stage of the contagion's spread around mid-November of 2020.

The study, conducted by researchers from an operations research group of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), said the nationwide lockdown from March 25 shifted the peak by an estimated 34 days to 76 days and helped bring down the number of infections by 69-97 percent, allowing time to shore up resources and health infrastructure.

"While lockdowns will delay the onset of peak and give the much-needed time for the health system to respond, strengthening the health system response in terms of testing, isolation of cases, treatment and contact-tracing, as is being done currently, will have to be the mainstay to reduce the impact of the pandemic in India until a vaccine becomes available," claimed the study.

In a scenario of intensified public health measures with 60 percent effectiveness after the lockdown, the demand for treatment facilities can be met until the first week of November. Thereafter, isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, intensive care unit (ICU) beds for 4.6 months and ventilators for 3.9 months, the study showed.

If the coverage of healthcare measures can be increased to 80 percent, the pandemic can be mitigated, it added.

With the additional capacity built for testing, treating and isolating patients during the lockdown, the number of cases at the peak could come down by 70 percent and the cumulative cases may drop by nearly 27 percent, the study said.

As per the Indian Health Ministry update this morning, the country reported 11,502 fresh Covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours, pushing the tally to 3,32,424, while the death toll moved up to 9,520 with 325 fresh fatalities.