India needs strategic foresight

INDIA has inherited a legacy of disputed borders with China, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The border dispute with Bangladesh, which arose in 1971, the same year the latter came into being, can somehow be resolved relatively easier than that of China and Pakistan.
A serious attempt in this context was made on September 6, 2011, during Manmohan Singh's visit to Dhaka, where an additional protocol to the agreement concerning the demarcation of land boundary between India and Bangladesh and related matters was signed. The Bangladesh Parliament has ratified this protocol.
The Bharatiya Janata Party, Trinamol Congress (TMC) and Asom Gan Parishad (AGP) had blocked the passage of the same in Indian Parliament, in spite of the fact that India would benefit immensely — both politically and economical — besides taking care of the right to livelihood and other fundamental rights of those inhabiting these enclaves. The reason for these parties objecting to the protocol was largely the parting of 10,000 acres of land to Bangladesh, while exchanging enclaves in their territory.
While national parties blame regional parties for short sightedness, the truth is that on issues such as the land boundary agreement even the principal opposition party, the BJP, failed to act in a responsible manner. While initially, the party is supposed to have expressed support, it backed out once it saw AGP rejecting the agreement.
BJP's intransigence on giving assent to the protocol, as also confirmed by Sushma Swaraj, leader of the opposition in Lok Sabha, will considerably weaken the current dispensation led by Sheikh Hasina, which has made earnest attempts to reach out to India. But the BJP seems to be overlooking this important fact.
The BJP could find itself in a difficult situation on mainly two issues, as it expects to come to power next year, if Bangladesh is led by Khaleda Zia. First is the return of insurgency in North East India and second is the effort to revive Myanmar-Bangladesh-India (MBI) gas pipeline. During Khaleda Zia's tenure (2001-2006), Bangladesh played spoil sport in halting MBI pipeline project by setting three conditions, namely; India to provide transit facility for hydroelectricity import from Nepal and Bhutan, Bangladesh to be provided more facilities for trade with the two countries, and measures to be taken for reducing Indo-Bangladesh trade imbalance.
Though all the three issues are crucial, none should be a precondition for trade and commerce. It is during the current tenure of Hasina that the talks of reviving MBI pipeline restarted. Interestingly, Bangladesh, which has witnessed a significant fall in its natural gas reserves in 2012 according to BP Statistics 2013, has shown keenness to join both Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) and Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline projects recently.
Another advance made in the energy sphere during the existing tenure of Sheikh Hasina is ONGC Tripura Power Company (OTPC) signing a Memorandum of Understanding with the government of Bangladesh to open a new transport corridor through Bangladesh to facilitate transfer of heavy equipments of OTPC to Tripura. In return Tripura is keen to supply at least 100-MW of electricity to Bangladesh.
Further, ONGC lands two shallow water oil and gas blocks namely, SS-4 and SS09, in Bangladesh for the first time through a joint venture to explore hydrocarbons with Oil India Limited.
On the issue of illegal migration BJP has always taken a hard stand by securitisation of migration issue. For instance, L.K. Advani, the then deputy prime minister of India, on January 7, 2003, said that there were over 15 million illegal Bangladeshi migrants in India, who should be sent back as they were a serious threat to national security. A similar stance was taken by Narendra Modi while delivering his speech on Independence Day in Junagarh, Gujarat, stating illegal migration as a security threat.
It may be noted that India continues to be migration prone country and has witnessed the influx of refugees and migrants from its neighbours ever since it gained independence. Such influx of people included partition refugees, Tibetan refugees, Chakma refugees, Indo-Pak war refugees, Sri Lankan Tamil refugees, refugees from Bhutan and Myanmar and economic migrants from Bangladesh. In recent times people displaced due to climate change, largely from Bangladesh, are also flowing in.
Migrants from Bangladesh have been looked at more harshly by BJP, which at all times advocated for strong measures to deal with them. But it is simply not possible to impeach all migrants under the Foreigners (Amendment) Act, 2004, without ignoring the fact that illegal migration from Bangladesh to India is a reality. The need is to deal with this problem with some foolproof mechanism so that such influx is regulated well and legally acceptable without compromising on mutual security, while first identifying between refugee and migrant and then following the Principle of Non-Refoulement.
Lastly, India needs to act swiftly in resolving its political issues with Bangladesh so as to reap the economic benefits, while taking their bilateral relations to a greater level, otherwise it will again have to face a China wall which has already been firmly placed in Bangladesh, including Export Processing Zone dedicated for Chinese investors for boosting Bangladeshi's export to Chinese market or Chinese investment in Chittagong port.
India too should think of enhancing its trade and commerce in more innovative ways as it has done through the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), groupings involving Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand Economic Cooperation.
Therefore, India would do well if BJP re-evaluates its thought of dissonance for additional protocol for LBA as this will result in multifarious benefits to India in a longer run by improving bilateral relations with Bangladesh. Sorting of political issues with Bangladesh, following the aforesaid model, could provide some sort of template for resolving similar disputes with other neighbours.
Hence, future outcomes of Indo-Bangladesh relations could be significantly influenced by the course of actions taken today by these two countries.

The writers are Researcher with ORF, and Public Policy Scholar with The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy, Chennai, respectively.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.)