Food grain production: The challenges

DESPITE high pressure of population on land and other natural resources, Bangladesh has made remarkable progress in national food production over the last three and half decades. Although the country has achieved near self-sufficiency in food grain, continued population growth and the extreme scarcity of land raise the challenge of sustaining the gains. With the past remarkable production growth performance in food grain sector, the country barely made a dent towards  improving its food security condition because of population growth of nearly 1.38% per annum.

Think-tank economists postulate that, because of population and income growth, the demand for cereal foods (especially for rice) is expected to rise by over 1.5% per annum for the next few decades. An estimate clearly indicated that by the year 2020, 37 million tons of food grain will be required for a projected population of 172 million. It is, therefore, presumed that Bangladesh would probably face an enormous challenge over the next decade in achieving food self-sufficiency and ensuring food security for all individuals and groups. In a subsistence-oriented agrarian economy such as Bangladesh's, domestic food production has an important role to play in the quest for food security. As such, the obsession with rice and cereals is evident amongst the policy makers in the country.

Potential challenges: The shrinking availability of land for crop production is a challenge for the economy. Gradual decrease of cultivable land on one hand and increased population on the other, coupled with degreasing  natural resources and competitive world market have put Bangladesh in a daunting situation. Domestic food production remains susceptible to various natural hazards (e.g. floods, drought, cyclone, submergence etc.), thereby perpetuating the threat of major production shortfalls, inadequate food availability, and vulnerability from fluctuations in prices. In fact, natural disasters and Bangladesh have become almost synonymous in recent times. Bangladesh is considered to be one of the most vulnerable countries among the developing countries in the world, and more vulnerable than its neighbours.

Nevertheless, with the exploitation of full potentiality of cereal (especially rice) production, the government still has to import huge amount of food grains to meet the crisis during natural disasters.

Records of food import data for the last decades indeed imply that, in a production shortfall year due to natural calamities, import requirement increases up to 5.5 million tons. However, the given data for the period 1980 to 2012 show that although food grain production increased during this long period amidst the extremely vulnerable ecology, level of import also kept pace with it; i.e. food grain import increased -- ranging from 1.8 million tons to 5.5 million tons in different years (as shown in the figure). In fact, imports of cereals continued with substantial increase in different years, mostly following poor harvests due to floods and droughts. Import of wheat increased consistently over time despite its increased domestic production and the reduction in food aid in recent years.  

Production  and availability  of food  grains  through proper  utilisation  of  the  limited  land  in  order  to  meeting  the demand is a great challenge for Bangladesh. Food supply and availability, both at the household and individual levels, remain a major concern for the government. Since rice is the main staple, food security critically depends on its adequate availability and accessibility throughout the year. However, frequent occurrence of devastating floods, droughts, cyclones etc. have caused slower agricultural growth in Bangladesh, resulting in disruption of the overall supply of food grains. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance food grain production through increasing land productivity to meet the increasing demand for food.

The writer is the former Chief Economist and Head of Agricultural Economics Division, BRRI, Currently affiliated with Dhaka based FAO of the United Nations.
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