Congress faces rout as BJP advances

THE message from the Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi Assembly elections is stark. The Congress stands routed and faces further decline. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has gained impressively. And the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has made a spectacular debut in Delhi.
These states account for 72 Lok Sabha seats. So one cannot extrapolate this verdict to the national elections to 543 seats. But the national mood is turning against the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), primarily because of rising prices, as recent Lokniti-CSDS polls show.
Unless the UPA executes radical changes in economic policy, political strategy and top personnel, it's likely to lose power.
The verdict has led some commentators to argue that India is entering a “new” political era in which “old” class-caste-community equations don't hold; poverty and inequality don't matter; and welfare schemes don't influence elections. What matters is the “aspirational,” upwardly mobile, voter who despises welfare. Narendra Modi greatly appeals to this voter. So the 2014 election will also be his!
This argument is specious. The results confirm that “old equations” determine election victories. Besides, Mr. Modi's campaigning had no impact except in Rajasthan, where it wasn't decisive.
The four states swing between the BJP and Congress. The BJP's share of their Assembly seats has risen from 50% (2008) to 70%. But such gains don't readily translate into Lok Sabha outcomes.  
In 1998, the Congress won all these states. But the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won the 1999 Lok Sabha. In 2003, the BJP won three states, but lost the 2004 Lok Sabha polls. The 2008 Assembly score was 2-2. Yet, the UPA emphatically won the 2009 Lok Sabha.
The BJP has outperformed the Congress in all four states. But its victory was convincing only in Rajasthan and MP, and compromised or thin in Delhi and Chhattisgarh.
In Delhi, the BJP didn't win a majority; its vote-share fell from 36.3% to 31.4%. The Congress collapsed from 43 seats to eight; its vote-share falling to 23%, a historic low.
The AAP won 27% of the vote despite fielding many unknown candidates. It won handsomely in slums, and bagged nine of twelve reserved Scheduled Caste seats. Arvind Kejriwal massively defeated Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, winning more votes than her and the next candidate combined.
In Chhattisgarh, the BJP won 49 seats to the Congress' 39, but their vote-difference was 0.7% -- 60,000 of 11 million-plus. The Congress could have scraped through had its state leadership not been wiped out by extremists in May, and had it campaigned with equal gusto in all state regions while containing factionalism.
What saved the day for Chief Minister Raman Singh were his welfare schemes: the Public Distribution System, which made foodgrains affordable for nine-tenths of the population, and similar anti-deprivation measures -- in other words, “old equations.”
Welfare's effects were screamingly obvious in MP too, through Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan's PDS, a vigorous National Rural Employment Guarantee Act programme, free bicycles for schoolgirls, provision of rural infrastructure, drinking water, roads, etc.
Mr. Chouhan, an OBC, contrasted himself with former Congress CM Digvijay Singh, who let MP languish for 10 years. He also stressed MP's emergence as India's highest-growth state with rising social indices. It's no longer a Bimaru (Bihar-MP-Rajasthan-Uttar Pradesh-acute-deprivation) state.
The BJP's Rajasthan performance was beyond its dreams. Bagging over 80% of seats, and 45% of votes, it reduced the Congress to just 21 seats, taking a 12 percentage-point lead.
Why didn't CM Ashok Gehlot's famed welfare measures -- including free medicines, subsidised food, old-age pensions, Dalit housing, government jobs, and India's best NREGA record -- help?
Many factors worked against him, besides rising prices, which blunted the effect of welfare. These include alienation of Jats and upper castes, who never reconciled themselves to this OBC leader; Muslim disillusionment because of the Gopalgarh firing (which the BJP exploited by fielding four Muslims, two of whom won); and deteriorating power supply amidst a worsening agrarian crisis.
Ironically, NREGA's success in Rajasthan became a liability: it raised rural daily wages to Rs.300-350, adding to farmers' woes.
Flaws or administrative laxity in service delivery, poor public communication, and corruption in cash transfers worked against Mr. Gehlot. The BJP viciously branded free medicines as “poison,” confusing people.
Many Congress tickets were given to elite nominees of Rahul Gandhi's advisers, who don't comprehend ground realities. A Gehlot rival was appointed Congress campaign chief. And there was internal sabotage.
Mr. Modi took over election micromanagement in Rajasthan, especially in the South. He deployed 20-25 Gujaratis at each polling booth. They inflamed middle-class Hindu communal prejudice by citing Muzaffarnagar episode and spreading “love jehad” rumours.
Mr. Modi's Rajasthan rallies in 23 constituencies were well-attended, leading to a doubling of the BJP's seats to 20. In MP and Chhattisgarh, he addressed respectively 15 and 12 meetings, with a poor, dwindling turnout. His September 25 rally in Bhopal attracted five lakhs. But his November 18 rally drew just 4,000.
In Baghelkhand (MP), despite Mr. Modi's intensive campaign, the BJP's tally fell from 21 (of 29 seats) to 20. In tribal Chhattisgarh, he drew much smaller crowds than Rahul Gandhi. The BJP's score fell from 35 to 34.
Mr. Modi's six rallies in Delhi didn't stem the AAP tide. He addressed anti-Congress meetings in Chandni Chowk and Sultanpur Majra. The Congress retained both seats. In Northwest Delhi, many among the bored audience left before he finished his speech.
Mr. Modi's appeal is limited and may be decreasing. That's no consolation for the Congress. Its gloomy prospect cannot improve unless it radically corrects course by adopting combatively anti-communal and anti-elitist policies. It must control prices through the Essential Commodities Act, lower interest rates, tax the rich, and launch yet more pro-poor welfare measures.
If this means sacking those most responsible for the UPA's pro-Big Business policies, including Finance Minister P. Chidambaram and Planning Commission deputy chief M.S. Ahluwalia, so be it. The alternative is decimation.

The writer is an eminent Indian columnist.
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