ECB policymakers doubt projected growth rebound | The Daily Star
12:00 AM, April 17, 2019 / LAST MODIFIED: 12:00 AM, April 17, 2019

ECB policymakers doubt projected growth rebound

Several European Central Bank policymakers think the bank's economic projections are too optimistic as growth weakness in China and trade tensions linger, four sources with direct knowledge of discussions said.

A “significant minority” of rate-setters in last week's policy meeting expressed doubt that a long projected growth recovery is coming in the second half of the year and some even questioned the accuracy of the ECB's projection models, given their long history of downward revisions, the sources said.

With the ECB using the these projections as a key input into policy decision, more cuts in growth and inflation forecasts would raise the chance that the bank's first post crisis rate, now seen next year, is delayed even longer.

An ECB spokesman declined to comment.

The central bank has so far maintained that many of the factors holding down growth are temporary, so the economy would rebound in the second half, after waning exports and eroding confidence nearly dragged Germany into recession late last year.

ECB President Mario Draghi said over the weekend there were signs that these factors were waning, even if political uncertainty loomed large.

But some of his fellow Governing Council members were not as confident and argued that the growth hurdles were far from temporary, so there was no reason to project any significant rebound, the sources said.

While Germany's vast car sector did take a one-off hit from an adjustment to new emissions-testing methods, more permanent factors could include shifting consumption habits, a move away from diesel and weak Chinese demand, some governors argued, according to the sources.

The policymakers added that weak global trade growth also appears to be more permanent, trade wars now look to be the norm rather than the exception and even if Chinese growth looks to be stabilizing, demand from Beijing is unlikely to surge. Some governors went as far as saying that the ECB's forecasting methodology may need to be reviewed since projections are persistently too optimistic and are regularly cut quarter after quarter, the sources said.

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