Emerging risks for emerging economies
Suddenly it seems that emerging-market economies have gained a respite. Capital flows to these economies dried up in the second half of last year as the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate for five consecutive quarters and shrank its balance sheet.
Shelter from the storm in 2019
What would have to happen for this to be a tranquil year economically, financially, and politically? Answer: a short list of threats to stability would have to be averted.
Globalisation with Chinese characteristics
US President Donald Trump's erratic unilateralism represents nothing less than abdication of global economic and political leadership.
Can a trade war be averted?
Probably the question most frequently asked of international economists these days is: “Are we seeing the start of a trade war?” This is not a question that admits of a simple yes-or-no answer. In contrast to a shooting war, there's no government declaration to mark the official outbreak of hostilities. Tariffs have been raised and lowered throughout history, for reasons both good and bad.
Ready or not for the next recession?
A sunny day is the best time to check whether the roof is watertight. For economic policymakers, the proverbial sunny day has arrived:
Two myths about automation
Robots, machine learning, and artificial intelligence promise to change fundamentally the nature of work. Everyone knows this.
Central Banks in the dock
On November 11, 1997, the Bank of England took a big step toward independence, courtesy of the second reading in the House of Commons of a bill amending the Bank Act of 1946. The bill gave legislative affirmation to the decision,
Revenge of the experts
The Brexit debate is an endless source of mirth for anyone with a dark sense of humour. My own favourite quote is from Michael Gove, currently Britain's environment secretary.
May 17, 2017
Is Germany unbalanced or unhinged?
For US President Donald Trump, the measure of a country's economic strength is its current-account balance — its exports of goods and services minus its imports.
January 15, 2017
Trump before Trump
Understanding the political success of US President-elect Donald Trump is not easy. There have been many glib comparisons with populist politicians of the past, from Huey Long to George Wallace. But the most revealing comparison may be with an historical figure from another country: the British nativist firebrand Enoch Powell in the late 1960s and early 1970s.
December 21, 2016
The Age of Hyper-Uncertainty
For all these reasons, the golden age of stability and predictability that was the third quarter of the twentieth century seemed to have abruptly drawn to a close, to be succeeded by a period of greatly heightened uncertainty.
November 21, 2016
Globalisation's last gasp
Does Donald Trump's election as United States president mean that globalisation is dead, or are reports of the process' demise greatly exaggerated?
August 17, 2016
Airing the IMF's dirty laundry
Following the International Monetary Fund's controversial actions in the Asian financial crisis of 1998, when it conditioned liquidity assistance to...
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