An election process devoid of democratic principles

Once again, safeguarding the principles and practices of democracy has become paramount for realising the hopes, aspirations, goals and objectives of the people of Bangladesh. The tenth parliamentary election is coming under serious scrutiny from domestic and external quarters. A crisis is looming in the horizon that may soon engulf the nation in a fratricidal battle. Deferring the election date by 90 days after dissolution of the parliament is in conformity with the constitution. The rival political parties are yet to agree on a formula for conducting the polls. The opposition parties (18 party alliance) will have to withdraw the ultimatum for hartals and desist from inciting violence to demonstrate their good will. BNP and the ruling party have to agree to defer the date for the election.
Deferring the election will create a negotiating space for a UN representative and allow the talks to continue between BNP and AL. In case the two parties do not succeed in reaching a solution a mediator may be appointed by the UN to resolve the differences between them. A committee for elections should be formed for resolving the short to medium term issues pertaining to the holding of the elections. A committee for political and democratic reform should be entrusted with the responsibility of constitutional and institutional reform consistent with democratic principles.
Credible, free and fair elections will benefit both parties. This will add legitimacy and assure the ruling party of continued support from the people and the international community. Lack of cooperation from the people can make any government fail. Loss of legitimacy of the re-elected government is the biggest threat facing AL. BNP has a significant support base and may win more than the expected number of seats due to the recent decline in the popularity of the ruling AL.
A one-sided election runs the risk of being rejected by the people and the international community. Rejection of the results of the polls would mean re-election within a short period of time. The uncontested elections to 154 seats and the January 5 polls may be unacceptable to the people and seriously undermine the reputation of the AL government. PM Hasina risks losing the credits as well as the good name earned from the international community by keeping the election pledges of 2008, and also the optimism about Bangladesh's future. The new regime will have to face the consequences of loss of legitimacy in the event of outright rejection of the results of the elections by the people. During the tenure of the 10th Parliament, the government might also have to deal with domestic instability fueled by the threat of fundamentalism amidst escalating violence.
In the ongoing stalemate support for a new leadership is expected to grow from the politically conscious people, civil society, and moderate minded leaders. Ultimately, the people may succeed in exerting enough pressure upon the leadership to bring about the desirable changes for an acceptable system for ensuring democratic participation of the people based on social and economic justice. In responding to the ongoing crisis, global as well as regional powers can be expected to campaign for the restoration of democracy in Bangladesh.
Therefore, political instability in Bangladesh would continue to hamper the government in its external relations. Eventually, the regime may even face the consequences of an economic decline and run the risk of becoming ineffective. However, it may continue to rule by blocking the people's movement with use of force. Therefore, violent demonstrations and civil strife may be foreseeable in the near future. Security forces will have to be deployed to address any militancy. The opposition forces aligned with the extremists may acquire arms and escalate the anti-AL campaign by increasing the intensity and level of violence. Violent anti-state activities of the opposition led by the Jamaat-Shibir activists may lead to excessive use of force by the law enforcing agencies.
Therefore, the government may have to face allegations of repression and human rights abuses that would greatly undermine any attempt to regain political stability. It may lose support of the international community and may even lead to Bangladesh's isolation. In the not too distant future, Sheikh Hasina may have to give in to the demands for re-election and relinquish power. What may seem to be a win-win strategy for AL now may end up being lose-lose strategy for all in the end. After all, BNP also stands to lose by non-cooperation and resorting to political violence, and for its connection with Jamaat.
In the end, one cannot dismiss the possibility of the emergence of a new democratic party.

The writer is Senior Adviser, Enertech International Inc.