Sri Lankan peace process on the brink of collapse?

The South Asian island state of Sri Lanka seems slowly heading towards bloody conflict once again because of setbacks in recent times over resumption of the stalled peace process between the government and Tamil militants unless the stalemate is broken and some positive signals are available from the parties involved in the country's long drawn civil war. The anxiety has been heightened after several Western nations, keen to see that the peace dialogue is resumed, have urged president Chandrika Kumaratunga to rein in the defiant partner JVP in the ruling coalition and similar other forces opposing peace with Tamil rebels.

Fears continue to mount whether the truce between the government and the Tamil Tigers is increasingly becoming uncertain due to the stand off and the impression being given by the Tigers that they are getting apprehensive about the fate of the cease fire. The peace talks are stalled for many months and took a beating following exit from power of former prime minister Ranil Wickramasinghe, whose government had initiated the dialogue with the rebels but was dismissed by the president evidently for being "soft" to the Tamil militants. The elections that followed brought Chandrika's supporters in power under a new prime minister and chances of a settlement of two-decade old civil war through discussions have since been hanging in the balance.

Six rounds of talks between the Colombo government and the Tamil Tigers during Ranil's time raised hopes for a negotiated settlement of the contentious civil war in the country, which was virtually bleeding to white because of the long drawn conflict centering minority Tamil's armed struggle for a separate homeland in the north of the country. There was no decisive outcome of the civil war as the success in the battlefield swung from one side to the other and occasional cease fire produced no tangible results and hostilities resumed in quick time.

However, situation marked a qualitative change when the government of prime minister Ranil Wickramasinghe took an active pro-peace policy with the rebels more than three years ago, which facilitated a dialogue that went for several rounds at different venues abroad making some progress in the vexed problem. While it will be height of folly to expect easy resolution of the Sri Lankan civil war given the complexities involved in the issue, the dialogue gave hopes since both sides made significant concessions. The government conceded to some demands of Tigers while the later abandoned their main position -- an independent state for the Tamils, who constitute about 18 percent of the country's population but are concentrated in the northern region. The road to peace through negotiations is undoubtedly bumpy but what was remarkably encouraging is the marked willingness to find common ground towards a permanent settlement of the problem.

Notwithstanding differences on some key areas, both sides demonstrated commendable attitude in carrying forward the parleys. Admittedly, talks occasionally went into rough weather and even at one stage had been suspended indefinitely but both side never spoke of chances of resuming hostilities. They overcame the bottlenecks and agreed for next round of discussions.

Unfortunately, things turned bad when president Chandrika Kumaratunga acted in a haste to dismiss three key ministers of Wickramasinghe's government and herself took over the army and police, widening her rift with the prime minister.

Sri Lanka has a strange democracy which is seen as neither presidential nor parliamentary. The president has wide powers including sacking the elected government of the prime minister even if he enjoys majority in the parliament. But, rather paradoxically, it is the prime minister and the cabinet that effectively runs the nation. This situation which is potentially dangerous to spawn conflicts between the President and Prime minister did not affect the government before but proved near-suicidal when two top persons not only came from rival political platforms but are also chief political opponents. Ranil lost the presidential election to Chandrika but the former later won the parliamentary polls and thereby formed the new government which pursued the peace process. But again, in the elections that followed sacking of Ranil's government, Chandrika's political alliance managed to win narrowly and form the government, thus dealing a blow to the peace efforts.

However, President Chandrika says that she favours the peace process with the militants even though there has been no effective steps from the government to resume the dialogue. She is under pressure from international community and the opposition, now headed by Ranil Wickramasighe, for taking fresh initiative to break the impasse. On the other hand, Villupai Prabhakaran, the Tamil militants supremo, has warned that Sri Lanka situation may revert to "square one" unless the government comes out with open mind on their demand of self-rule. He has also indicated that the rebels are bracing with the possibilities of resumption of the hostilities. The president is facing resistance from within the coalition government, particularly the Marxist JVP, which is opposing any settlement with the Tamils tooth and nail. Chandrika possibly cannot afford to annoy the JVP, whose support is crucially important for the survival of government that the president supports.

But Chandrika also feels that she will have to shoulder the blame should the cease fire finally collapses and hostilities resumes much to the dismay of most people. The envoys of powerful Western nations like the United States, Japan and the European Union have met recently the president and urged her to take steps for resumption of talks with the rebels. For, they argued, the hard earned progress made in the dialogue before must not be allowed to go in vain. They also implored on her for initiatives on giving new life to the peace talks. Norwegian mediator Eric Solhem after meeting the government and rebels has expressed disappointment over the situation. This causes anxiety about the shape of things to come in the future. Prudence and statesmanship on the part of the president can probably save the situation since the ball is in her court. She needs to play it without party or political bias but for the sake of much larger interest of the country and the people.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.